China reaffirms its opaque nuclear posture

Hong Kong, December 2 : China is expanding its nuclear-warhead arsenal at blistering pace, one that constitutes the fastest build-up of nuclear weaponry in human history. Alarmingly, Beijing has failed to explain why it perceives the need to do so, until now, that is.

A Pentagon report published in late 2023 tabulated 500 operational nuclear warheads in China, a figure that had increased to 600+ by late 2024. By 2030, China will have a

predicted 1,000 nuclear warheads.

China set about offering clarity as to its nuclear posture through a white paper entitled "China's Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era". Issued on November 27, 20 years since China last issued such a document, it however leaves many questions unanswered.

Why is China embarking on the world's fastest buildup of nuclear weapons?

One brief line in the white paper offers an explanation: "the modernization of its nuclear forces" is apparently "to safeguard China's own strategic security and overall global strategic stability". By multiplying its nuclear forces, Beijing blithely asserts that both it and the rest of the world can feel safer.

Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at Carnegie China's Nuclear Policy Program, commented that "China now argues more openly that the strengthening of its military is to strengthen the peaceful forces in the world - a vision that ties the achievement of global strategic stability to a more capable Chinese nuclear force."

At its 3 September military parade through Tiananmen Square, missiles featured prominently and proudly. In fact, no fewer than five types of nuclear weapons appeared in the event: DF-61, DF-5C and DF-31BJ intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM); JL-1 air-launched nuclear-tipped missiles; and JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

Referring to this document's release, Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, commented, "I wouldn't say the content is disappointing, since this is China's official position and repeats Beijing's historical positions from the past. To be sure, it's full of propaganda divorced from China's own actions and policies, but it nonetheless offers some new insights into China's own nuclear policy that merit our attention."

One idiosyncrasy is China's assertion that it is a peace-loving nation and contributor to global security and prosperity. The white paper claimed: "The Chinese nation has always cherished peace and harmony among nations, upheld justice and opposed abuse of the weak by the strong and excessive use of force."

Philippine and Vietnamese fishermen, and members of the Philippine Coast Guard, amongst others, would refute China's claims of innocence. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) and China Coast Guard are being particularly aggressive in the South China Sea. Furthermore, China eschewed and denigrated international organizations like the Permanent Court of Arbitration that told Beijing its territorial claims in the South China Sea are illegal.

There is a lot of finger pointing in the white paper, generally towards the USA.

"Today, humanity again has to choose between peace and war, dialog and confrontation, win-win cooperation and zero-sum game." It is therefore somewhat ironic that China steadfastly supports Vladimir Putin's bloody invasion of Ukraine when a choice of peace apparently exists.

The "China's Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era" white paper added: "A certain country seeks absolute strategic superiority by constantly expanding its armaments, strengthening combat readiness and provoking bloc confrontation ... In particular, this country has strengthened military alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, exercised extended deterrence and forward-deployed ground-based intermediate-range missiles, provoking tension and opposition and severely undermining the security and interests of countries in the region."

The only ground-based intermediate-range missiles the USA is believed to have currently stationed in Asia-Pacific is a battery of Typhon missiles in the Philippines. Yet the PLA has been expanding its own missile arsenal at unprecedented rates. The Pentagon estimates the PLA has some 500 DF-26 and DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missiles in service, and at the 3 September victory parade in Beijing it unveiled a new variant called the DF-26D.

Zhao identified hypocrisy in China's stance: "China denounces some states' Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF)-range missile deployments, but claims a legitimate need to 'modestly' build its own." Except, China's arsenal cannot be described as modest in anyone's book.

Notably, China has largely refused to engage with US approaches for arms control talks. In spite of its own intransigence, Beijing blames the USA for withdrawing from various treaties. Indeed, President Donald Trump in his first term withdrew from the 1992 Open Skies Treaty; failed to reach an agreement with Russia to extend New START (this is the only treaty regulating strategic nuclear weapons in the world's two largest nuclear arsenals, and it expires in February 2026); and withdrew from the 1987 INF Treaty.

Unsurprisingly, the white paper fails to admit the reason for the USA withdrawing from these agreements - the fact that Russia was already violating them, and that China refused to voluntarily join.

Zhao commented, "Beijing appears to severely underestimate both the risk of a nuclear arms race and the importance of greater transparency and self-restraint in its nuclear policy as a measure of reassurance. If Washington begins expanding its nuclear arsenal, Chinese experts are unlikely to dismiss this as militarily insignificant or advocate for calm. Both nations risk knowingly entering a nuclear arms race."

China further warned it will not entertain arms control or risk reduction measures until the USA abandons its "aggressive nuclear deterrent policy based on first use," and ceases its "hypocritical policy of inciting confrontation and creating crisis".

Although increasing in size, it is correct that China's nuclear stockpile does not approach the size of those of Russia or the USA. "Countries possessing the largest nuclear arsenals should fulfill their special and primary responsibilities for nuclear disarmament and continue to make drastic and substantive reductions in their nuclear arsenals in a verifiable, irreversible and legally binding manner, so as to create the conditions for complete and thorough nuclear disarmament," Beijing pleaded.

But how likely is this? Will North Korea, Israel, India and Pakistan give up their nuclear weapons voluntarily? Will China? It is easy to expansively ask others to make such pledges, but they are empty epithets because they will never happen.

Elsewhere, the white paper said, "China calls for stronger solidarity and cooperation, opposes unilateralism, firmly upholds the status and authority of the United Nations, and supports the UN in playing an indispensable role in global governance." Beijing said it has ratified or signed 20+multilateral arms control treaties and "strictly complies with their obligations".

Yet amidst the dramatic expansion of its nuclear arsenal, China says without a trace of irony that "global nuclear strategic rivalries are becoming more intense and complex, and the risk of a nuclear arms race is growing". Even more paradoxically, Beijing noted, "From the day it came into possession of these weapons, China has advocated their complete prohibition and thorough destruction." Somehow, though, China is multiplying its nuclear stockpile rather than dismantling it.

Importantly, Jeffrey Lewis, Distinguished Scholar of Global Security at Middlebury College in the USA, said, "The new PRC white paper on arms control contains a strong and clear endorsement of China's no-first use policy. Whatever else one might say about the paper or the policy, one can't say it is ambiguous."

Indeed, the document reassuringly noted, "China has always remained committed to the principle of no-first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances, and unconditionally undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones."

Zhao remarked: "The white paper leans heavily on no-first-use (NFU). Diplomatic leverage aside, China has no real military need to drop NFU as a declaratory policy. Rising confidence in conventional superiority drives a strategy of prevailing conventionally, while deterring US nuclear escalation." Beijing maintains its nuclear weapons are only for defensive purposes, that they offer a secure second-strike capability.

"China's greatest contribution to international nuclear arms control lies in the fact that it has the most stable, consistent and predictable nuclear policy among all nuclear-weapon states." It also promised it never has and never will engage in any nuclear arms race in terms of level of expenditure, quantity or scale of nuclear weapons.

This is arguable, however, given the rapid growth of its nuclear arsenal under Chairman Xi Jinping. Nor has China criticized Putin for his threats to employ nuclear weapons in the ongoing Ukraine conflict. China is simultaneously improving capabilities in strategic early warning, command and control, missile penetration and rapid response, as well as its survivability, when it comes to nuclear capabilities.

China also generously excuses itself from the treaties and limitations it feels others are obliged by. Beijing pleaded, "Due to the vast differences between nuclear weapon states in their nuclear forces and policies, and in their security environment, there are no measures to reduce nuclear risks that can be universally applied."

In other words, the rules applied to China should be different to those that apply to everyone else. This exceptionalism is like a "free get out of jail card" for Beijing. It also patted itself on the back for notifying some countries of its September 2024 ICBM firing into the South Pacific, an action that outraged nearby countries.

Unsurprisingly, AUKUS - a trilateral agreement between Australia, the UK and USA - came in for vehement criticism. China accused AUKUS of undermining the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

"The nuclear submarine cooperation between the US, the UK and Australia involves the first transfer of naval nuclear propulsion reactors and weapons-grade highly enriched uranium from nuclear-weapon states to a non-nuclear-weapon state. This apparently runs counter to the object and purpose of the NPT and severely undermines the international nuclear nonproliferation regime," China fumed. It is okay for China to possess nuclear-powered - and nuclear-armed - submarines, but obviously not right for others.

China should then have criticized North Korea for its similar nuclear submarine ambitions, but it stayed silent. Pyongyang's ambitions are likely to cause South Korea to pursue them too, and that in turn will prompt Japan to do the same. In fact, Zhao highlighted, "By omitting both 'denuclearization' and the nuclear issue from the section on Korea Peninsula security, China offers another sign of tacit acceptance of a nuclear North Korea - at the cost of weakening its ability to advocate denuclearization."

China also blamed the USA's missile defense system as a source of confrontation and distrust. "In pursuit of absolute security, this certain country has advanced the Golden Dome global missile defense system without restraint and sought to deploy weapons in outer space, severely threatening outer space security." Yet China has its own missile defense shield and is leveraging space for military purposes too!

In the "China's Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era" white paper, China paints itself as a responsible actor, a force for good. "It stays committed to the Chinese path to building a strong military and never engages in any form of arms race. A stronger Chinese military always adds strength to the world's peaceful forces."

It is interesting that China criticizes others when they incrementally increase their defense budgets. China's enormous defense spending increases are always justified and appropriate, whereas moderate growth in others provokes an "arms race".

Unfortunately, this is the kind of parochial and biased thinking that permeates this document.

The white paper concluded: "No matter how the world changes, China stands firmly on the right side of history and on the side of human progress, and serves as a staunch force for upholding world peace and security."

Conversely, Morris assessed: "In conclusion, the white paper attempts to signal China's principled stance on arms control, listing all the ways it has advocated through rhetoric and agreements the abolishment of nuclear weapons. But the inescapable fact not addressed is how China is embarking on the largest peacetime nuclear weapons breakout in peacetime history with no transparency. This fact completely undermines China's 'principled stance' on nuclear arms control.

Continuing to scapegoat the US as the source of all problems is no longer a viable excuse for such an arms buildup."

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