Why Pakistan's military cannot afford to eliminate Imran Khan: Punjab factor and fear of nationwide upheaval

New Delhi, Dec 7 As the political-military situation deteriorates in Pakistan and faces persistent security threats from Afghanistan, Balochistan and other non-state actors along with massive political instability, several reports and experts now claim that Pakistan cannot politically afford to eliminate former Prime Minister Imran Khan, despite persistent rumours about his safety in custody that have fuelled nationwide anxiety.

According to a report by The Diplomat, the rapid spread of speculation surrounding Imran Khan's alleged death highlights the deep public mistrust that defines Pakistan's current political climate.

Officials have dismissed the claims as orchestrated misinformation, but the atmosphere of suspicion reflects the scale of polarisation surrounding the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chief.

The report says that Army Chief Field Marshal General Asim Munir is acutely aware of the catastrophic consequences such an action would trigger.

Drawing from Pakistan's own recent history, it notes that the military has already witnessed the fallout of high-risk decisions -- from General Pervez Musharraf's killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti in 2006 to the Lal Masjid siege in 2007 -- events that continue to shape public resentment and insurgency dynamics.

Crucially, the analysis points to Punjab as the decisive factor.

Punjab is Pakistan's largest province, its political heartland, and the primary source of military recruitment.

The report emphasises that "the establishment could not afford the backlash of allowing a Punjabi leader to die in custody", citing the example of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's 2019 medical release amid fears of a public reaction in the province.

While the state previously weathered the fallout of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's hanging and Benazir Bhutto's assassination, those crises did not provoke sustained unrest in Pakistan's Punjab province.

Imran Khan, however, represents a different reality.

Although ethnically Pashtun, he is rooted in Punjab and commands cross-provincial support, particularly among digitally active youth.

His arrest in May 2023 triggered unprecedented attacks on military installations -- an eruption of anger the report describes as unimaginable in earlier eras.

Eliminating Imran Khan, it warns, would risk producing a martyr with nationwide appeal, igniting political upheaval at a moment when Pakistan's economy remains fragile.

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