Indian stocks remain buoyed; April inflation data in focus

New Delhi [India], May 10 : Indian stock indices yet again managed to close the day on a positive note after oscillating between gains and losses in the morning session. Sensex closed at 61,940.20 points, up 0.29 per cent and Nifty closed at 18,315.10 points, up 0.27 per cent on Wednesday.

IndusInd Bank, HDFC Life, Power Grid Corporation of India, Tata Motors, and BPCL were the top gainers, whereas UPL, Dr Reddy's, Infosys, Hindalco, and Sun Pharma were the top losers.

Better-than-expected strength of the US economy, firm foreign fund inflows, and strong GST collections among other macro fundamentals have supported Indian stocks consistently over the past fortnight or so.

"We are seeing a healthy consolidation and expect the resumption of the uptrend soon," said Ajit Mishra, VP - Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd about Indian markets. "However, one should maintain caution in stock selection now as we're seeing a mixed trend within sectors."

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have remained net buyers in Indian stock markets for the second straight month after having sold two months on a trot in January and February, the latest data from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed. FPIs bought assets worth Rs 11,631 crore in Indian stock markets in April and Rs 7,936 crore in March.

The release of US and Indian inflation data for April, to be released this week, will be keenly watched by the market participants to get a direction.

Consumer inflation in the US moderated in March to 5.0 per cent from 6.0 per cent the previous month, but the numbers are still way above the 2 per cent target. It was at 6.4 per cent in January, and 6.5 per cent the month before.

India's headline consumer price index-based (CPI) inflation (or retail inflation) has gradually declined from 7.8 per cent in April 2022 to 5.7 per cent in March 2023 - below RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.

The RBI's monetary policy actions over the past year seem to have reaped dividends in managing inflation.

The Reserve Bank of India, in its first monetary policy review meeting in 2023-24, decided to keep the key benchmark interest rate the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent, to assess the effects of the policy rate tightening done so far on various macroeconomic parameters.

Barring the recent pause, RBI has so far raised the repo rate, the rate at which it lends to banks, by 250 basis points cumulatively since May 2022 in the fight against inflation.

Much of the future monetary policy actions by various central banks will also depend on the upcoming inflation data.

Inflation has been a concern for many countries, including advanced economies, but India has managed to steer its inflation trajectory quite well.

Assuming an annual average crude oil price (Indian basket) of USD 85 per barrel and a normal monsoon, CPI (or retail) inflation is projected to moderate to 5.2 per cent for 2023-24 in India as estimated by RBI in its April monetary policy meeting; with Q1 at 5.1 per cent; Q2 at 5.4 per cent; Q3 at 5.4 per cent; and Q4 at 5.2 per cent.

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