Bank credit growth to be stronger in Q4FY23: Emkay Global

Chennai, Dec 31 After years of lackluster performance, the Indian banking sector has been a clear outperformer in 2022 and the credit growth in Q4FY23 is expected to be stronger, said Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

According to a report by Emkay Global, the Indian banking sector performance was led by stronger than-expected credit growth after years of a lackluster performance, sharp margin uptick benefiting from the rate cycle and a far stronger balance sheet now.

The public sector banks (PSB), too, have joined the party, outperforming even private banks in the recent past.

"We expect credit growth to be stronger in 4QFY23, unless it gets hit by a fresh Covid wave; also, it is likely to remain in the pink in FY24, given the healthy consumption trend and improving corporate credit growth. The margin trajectory, too, is expected to remain robust, while an improving asset quality resolution should provide further fuel to banks' profitability and, thus, to stock gains," Emkay Global said in a research report.

According to the report, the overall net-card addition moderated in November-2022, albeit remaining healthy at 1.3 million (vs 1.7 million in October-2022) to 80.7 million after a decline in August-September due to RBI regulations relating to cancelling inactive cards.

Spends were down 11 per cent MoM (up 29 per cent YoY) to Rs 1.2 trillion in November 2022, mainly due to a higher base in October 2022 on the back of festive demand.

"We believe card addition is likely to stay strong, with card players going full throttle, unless a fresh wave of Covid disrupts the business environment. We expect spends growth to also remain strong, given underlying consumption trends, while potential linking of non-Rupay cards as well with UPI could turn foe into friend, thus accelerating card spends," the report added.

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