Growth Curve: India's FY22 GDP expected to grow at 9.2%

New Delhi, Jan 7 India's economy is estimated to clock a growth of 9.2 per cent in terms of real GDP for FY22, official data showed on Friday.

In 2020-21, India's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent.

On Friday, the First Advance Estimates of National Income for financial year 2021-22, estimated that 'Real GDP' or 'GDP at Constant Prices' (2011-12) in the year 2021-22 rose to Rs 147.54 lakh crore from Rs 135.13 lakh crore, the 'Provisional Estimate of GDP' for the year 2020-21.

"The growth in real GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 9.2 per cent as compared to the contraction of 7.3 per cent in 2020-21," the National Statistical Office (NSO) said.

As per the estimate, real GVA at basic prices is estimated at Rs 135.22 lakh crore in 2021-22, as against Rs 124.53 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth of 8.6 per cent. In terms of sectors, the estimates showed growth from agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, manufacturing and construction at 3.9 per cent, 14.3 per cent, 12.5 per cent and 10.7 percent, respectively.The GVA at basic prices for 2021-22 from the electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services sector is expected to grow by 8.5 per cent.

Besides, GVA from trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting, financial, real estate and professional services, and public administration, defence and other services grew at 11.9 per cent, 4 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively.

"The GDP growth estimate at 9.2 per cent for the year 2021-22 is on expected lines. However, some impact of the ongoing wave of the pandemic caused by the Omicron variant will be evident in the Q4 numbers - especially in case of contact-based services and certain non-essential sectors as restrictions are once again being imposed across States," said Ficci President Sanjiv Mehta, the Chairman and Managing Director of Hindustan Unilever (HUL).

"Maintaining balance between lives and livelihoods will have to be done. Therefore, any restrictions to be imposed to contain the spread of the pandemic must be localised as any broad-based measures can have a cascading effect on the economy and restrict the growth momentum. The vaccination programme in the country is progressing very well and must continue with the same focus and efficiency."

PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Pradeep Multani termed the GDP growth estimate of 9.2 per cent for FY 2021-22 released by the NSO as "inspiring".

"The effective reforms undertaken by the government have rejuvenated the growth trajectory," he said.

"Going ahead, we look forward to the continued hand-holding by the Government through various reforms measures including the further reforms for MSMEs, enhanced consumption in the economy, greater 'Ease of Doing Business', reduced costs of doing business and employment creation in the country."

ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said "Compared to the pre-Covid performance of FY2020, the advance estimates project an anaemic rise of 1.3 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively, for GDP and GVA in FY2022."

"Most conspicuous amongst the disaggregated data is the weak performance of private final consumption expenditure and trade, hotel, transport, communication etc., which are pegged to trail their FY2020 levels by 2.9 per cent and a considerable 8.5 per cent, respectively, underscoring the lingering impact of Covid-19 on the Indian economy."

Vivek Rathi, Director of Research, Knight Frank India said: "Coming out from severe second wave, the Indian economy has shown a remarkable progress. Several high frequency indicators have reached pre-Covid levels."

"Even the contact intensive and mobility dependent sectors like hospitality, aviation and tourism bounced back sharply from the second wave. Third wave and Omicron variant across the world has increased caution but policy and business response this time is expected to be nuanced, and we are not seeing knee-jerk reactions like those of the initial two pandemic waves."

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