Lokmat News Network
Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar
To win the Aurangabad Central Assembly constituency requires at least 40% of the vote. Past elections reveal that 40-42% is usually needed, but significant vote-splitting has previously allowed candidates to win with just 32%.
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2014 showdown: Jaleel wins with split vote
In the 2014 election, the Central constituency had 286,000 voters, with a turnout of 65% as 188,469 cast ballots and 187,636 were valid. Tanwani received 21.8% and Jaiswal 22.2%, combining for 43.8% of the votes. This split favoured AIMIM, enabling Imtiaz Jaleel to win with just 32%.
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2019 face-off: Jaiswal secures slim victory
In the 2019 election, AIMIM and Shiv Sena faced off in the Central constituency, where 319,744 were registered to vote, and 193,155 participated, marking a 60.8% turnout. Jaiswal secured 42.6% of the vote, while AIMIM’s Naser Siddiqui followed with 35.4%.
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2024 Battle: Shinde Sena vs AIMIM for Central Seat
In 2024, the voter count has risen to 366,000, with an expected turnout of 60%, or around 219,000 voters. A candidate would need at least 40% of the vote, or 87,853 votes to win. The main contest is anticipated between Shinde’s Shiv Sena and AIMIM, with outcomes hinging on the Uddhav Sena’s support in Hindu-majority areas and Vanchit’s support in Muslim-majority areas.