New Delhi [India], April 12 : The Indian equity market has been through a rollercoaster during the past few weeks, facing structural shocks from the trade disruptions due to the conflict in West Asia, with many stocks falling sharply. A report by Vallum Capital suggests that the recent nosedive is a sign of speedy recovery in the market.
According to the report, the market has reached a point of "capitulation", where fear is overriding fundamentals, and this is often a precursor to a strong recovery.
"When more than 70% of stocks fall below their 200-day moving average, it's a sign of extreme stress," said Vallum Capital. On April 8, this reading hit 71.3%, indicating that the market is in a "Capitulation Zone". Historically, this has been a rewarding entry point, with median 1-year forward returns of +17.5%, according to the investment firm.
The report also highlighted the unprecedented velocity of normalisation in energy prices. Crude oil shocks usually take around 30 weeks to stabilise, but this time it took just 9 weeks. "This accelerated stabilisation is a massive signal for broader market stability," said Vallum Capital.
The report also notes that India's price-to-earnings (PE) premium over Emerging Markets (EM) has undergone a significant compression, making Indian stocks relatively cheap. "The philosophy that 'price always matters' is being validated," said Vallum Capital.
Vallum Capital added that structural reforms are often born in the "crucible of crisis", and the current geopolitical conflict has sparked a similar evolution in the defence sector. India has achieved record defence exports and has a huge pipeline of investments in the sector.
"Markets often remain in a flat 'time-correction' zone for two years to provide a concentrated reward in the third," said Vallum Capital. With the "Max Fear" phase subsiding, the report suggests that investors should start looking at the opportunities ahead.
"The question for investors is no longer about the risks of the battlefield, but whether they are positioned for the "New Innings" as the structural leaders of the next cycle emerge," Vallum Capital said. The report suggests that investors should look at sectors that have shown resilience during the turmoil, such as defence, and be prepared for a potential recovery in the coming months.
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