New Delhi, Sep 21 US government clarification that visa holders returning to the country are exempt from the new $100,000 fee will act as relief to Indian IT companies as markets open tomorrow, analysts said on Sunday.
The government clarification also said that H-1B petitions filed before the September 21 fee deadline will not incur the new $100,000 fee.
Analysts forecasted that IT stocks will see a decline of 3 to 5 per cent, but the slip will not be significant, as companies now can explore alternatives, such as relocating employees to Canada or Mexico.
They said that stocks that drop 15 to 25 per cent in the coming weeks present a long-term buying opportunity, adding that a 3–5 per cent decline should be overlooked. IT stocks may see some underperformance until trade negotiations produce a viable solution.
Further, data from industry associations showed Indian IT firms are consistently decreasing their dependence on H-1B visas. Around 20 per cent of their staff work on-site in the US with a large portion of them hired locally, and only 20–30 per cent of those on H-1B visas, according to multiple reports.
Additionally, H-1B visa applications fell from 42,671 in 2017 to 20,870 in 2024.
The Nifty IT index has slipped around 16 per cent year-to-date, whereas the Nifty 50 has increased by around 7.1 per cent. HCL Technologies, TCS, and Infosys were major losers, with declines over 28 per cent.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick defended the new visa rules as a corrective measure, claiming that previous employment-based visa policies allowed workers earning below-average salaries, many of whom relied on government assistance, to take jobs from American graduates.
President Trump expects the revised fee-based visa program to generate over $100 billion for the US Treasury, designated for national debt reduction and tax cuts. Critics, however, argued that the new fee hinders talent mobility and stifles innovation.
Approximately 71 per cent of H-1B visa holders are from India, primarily working for technology companies including Infosys, Wipro, Cognisant, and Tata Consultancy Services.
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