New Delhi [India], December 31 : Global crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure in 2026 as the global oil market is likely to face a sustained supply surplus, according to a report by ING Bank, a global banking and financial services major.
The report said the growing imbalance between supply and demand will weigh on prices through the year, keeping the outlook for crude oil subdued.
It added that the surplus in the global oil market is set to expand in 2026, following OPEC+ decision to unwind supply cuts at a quicker-than-expected pace. At the same time, non-OPEC supply is also expected to rise at a healthy rate despite the price weakness seen this year, adding further pressure on the market.
It stated "2026 oil surplus to weigh on prices...Our balance sheet shows that the surplus in the oil market is set to grow in 2026".
According to the report, the global oil market is expected to see a surplus of more than 2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026. Global oil supply is projected to grow by 2.1 million b/d next year, while global demand growth is expected to be much more modest at around 800,000 b/d.
This wide gap between supply growth and demand growth is a key reason why crude oil prices are expected to remain low.
The report noted that the peak of this surplus is likely to occur in the first half of 2026. However, with the balance sheet pointing to a surplus in every quarter of the year, global oil inventories are expected to keep building throughout 2026. Rising inventories typically put downward pressure on prices, as excess supply continues to accumulate in storage rather than being absorbed by demand.
The report also added that ICE Brent will average USD 57 per barrel in 2026. This forecast is based on the key assumption that Russian oil flows will continue despite US sanctions on major Russian oil producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil.
The report highlighted that Russia has managed to keep oil exports flowing since 2022 despite sanctions and embargoes, largely through the use of intermediaries and by offering larger discounts to buyers.
The report flagged that if sanctions prove more effective than expected, there could be some upside risk to oil prices. However, it also warned of downside risks, including ongoing peace talks.
If these talks lead to the lifting of certain sanctions on Russia, a major supply risk would ease, further reinforcing the likelihood of low global crude oil prices in 2026.
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