New Delhi [India], June 23 : There won't be a prolonged disruption to oil supplies, as there is no likelihood of escalation in the US-Iran conflict, noted a research report by UBS.
A latest research note by UBS reveals that market participants will not witness prolonged disruption to oil supplies as they don't see escalation in the conflict.
"We believe that near-term downside in stocks could represent an opportunity for investors who are underallocated to equities to build positions," UBS said in a note.
The report, however, raises cautions that Iran's retaliatory attack on US bases, US allies, and energy infrastructure remains a clear risk, but the amount of damage remains unclear.
UBS believes that "Iranian military capabilities have already been damaged by the air campaign so far, and Iran's military and navy will likely not be able to resist the combined power of the Israeli and US forces for a prolonged period."
Additionally, UBS don't see Russia becoming involved in the conflict. "Russia and Iran signed a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" earlier this year, and Russia condemned the Israeli attack on Iran. But while Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to help mediate in the conflict, he also explicitly pointed out that military aid was not covered under the strategic partnership. In addition, Russia's military capabilities are stretched by the war in Ukraine, and appearing as an antagonist to Israel and the US may also risk triggering the US to reconsider tougher sanctions or increased support to Ukraine."
On the precious metal side, the investment banking firm outlines that gold prices are expected to rally, and the metal remains an important portfolio hedge against rising geopolitical risks.
UBS target gold prices of USD 3,500/oz, in a risk-off scenario, we believe that prices could rise as high as USD 3,800/oz. furthermore, a weaker US dollar and lower real rates could lend some support to the yellow metals' prices.
"We think the fundamental trend of global investors diversifying long-held US dollar holdings in light of likely slower growth, lower rates, loose fiscal policy, and political uncertainty will continue, and we expect the trend of US dollar weakness to continue over the medium term," UBS added.
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