New Delhi [India], July 28 : India Inc's revenue likely grew a modest 4-6 per cent year-on-year in the April-June quarter of this current fiscal, slowing from 7 per cent growth in the previous two quarters, due to sluggish performance by the power, coal, information technology (IT) services and steel sectors, which collectively account for a third of the revenue, according to Crisil.
Crisil reached this revenue estimate after analysing over 600 companies.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) likely rose 4 per cent year-on-year. However, the EBITDA margin likely fell 10-30 basis points (bps), weighed down by IT services, automobiles, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), and pharmaceuticals, the rating agency said.
Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence, asserted that the early onset of monsoon and lingering geopolitical uncertainties are expected to have materially impacted some sectors in April-June.
"To wit, the rains-induced cooler summer culled demand for electricity. Consequently, the power sector's revenue is seen declining 8 per cent on-year. The lower demand also pushed down spot prices of electricity, and led to a 2-3 per cent lower demand for coal," Sharma said.
"On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainties impacted the IT services sector, where revenue growth is seen flat on-year due to project delays stemming from tariff worries, which led to a slowdown in activity."
The steel sector's revenue is expected to have grown a moderate 1-3 per cent year-on-year, due to planned maintenance shutdowns at major steel mills and a 2-4 per cent year-on-year decline in prices.
The auto sector's revenue is foreseen rising 4 per cent year-on-year, owing to higher retail sales, partially offset by high inventory. An increase in prices, stemming from changes in the product mix and higher export realisations, likely helped revenue grow.
Despite no significant increase in the Union Budget allocation for the construction sector, its revenue is expected to rise 6 per cent year-on-year, as engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) companies benefited from a low base effect caused by disruptions from the general elections in the first quarter of the last fiscal year.
Five sectors pharmaceuticals, telecom services, organised retail, aluminium and airline likely drove revenue growth, Crisil said.
Revenue for pharmaceuticals is expected to increase by 9-11 per cent year-on-year, surpassing corporate India's revenue growth over the past 10 quarters, driven by strong export demand and a stable domestic market.
Telecom services revenue is expected to grow 12 per cent year-on-year, fueled by higher realisations of 11 per cent due to costlier subscription plans. Organised retail revenue is likely to rise 15-17 per cent, led by the value fashion and food and grocery segments.
Airline revenue is expected to rise 15 per cent year-over-year, driven by a 10-12 per cent increase in volume due to expanded supply resulting from reduced aircraft groundings and the addition of new aircraft.
Elizabeth Master, Associate Director, Crisil Intelligence, said, "The top 10 sectors, which collectively account for over 70 per cent of India Inc's revenue, likely showed a mixed trend in the Ebitda margin. While the margin rose for the power, cement, steel, telecom services, construction and aluminium sectors, it likely declined for IT services, automobile, FMCG and pharmaceuticals."
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