New Delhi [India], May 19 : The Indian stock market seems to be bullish after the India VIX, also called the Fear Gauge, declined lately. Over the past few sessions, including the special trading session on Saturday, the benchmark stock indices gained substantially, bringing in handsome returns on investments for investors.
The Volatility Index (VIX) or the Fear Index, indicates the market's expectation of volatility over the near term.
Analysts now believe the uptrend in the Indian stock benchmarks is expected to continue through this upcoming week starting Tuesday. On Monday, stock markets will remain closed on account of General Elections.
The stock market ended higher on Thursday, with the Nifty 50 index gaining 203 points and the BSE Sensex surging 676 points. The Bank Nifty index also closed higher, up by 289 points. The NSE saw the cash market volume reaching Rs 1.17 lakh crore, the highest since March 03. The advance-decline ratio stayed positive at 1.32:1, with the small-cap index outperforming the major indices.
On the other hand, after the end of the special trading session, the NSE Nifty 50 concluded at 22,502, up 36 points or 0.16 percent, while the BSE Sensex increased by 90 points, or 0.12 per cent, to 74,005.94.
The Bank Nifty index ended the day at 48,199.50, up 83.85 points, or 0.17 per cent. Real estate and media equities did better than the other sectoral indices.
The January-March quarter results for the ongoing fiscal 2023-24 (Q4FY24), voter turnout in the fifth phase of elections (Particularly in the Mumbai region), macroeconomic data from India and abroad, foreign fund withdrawals, crude oil prices, and global cues will all be closely watched by investors this coming week.
Anticipating the stock market in the upcoming week, Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd said, "The coming week is a holiday-shortened one and market focus will remain on earnings reports, ongoing elections, and global index performance for further cues."
"Most key sectors participated in the uptrend, with realty, metal, and energy sectors leading the gains, while FMCG was the exception. Notably, the buoyancy in broader indices stood out, with the midcap index reaching a record high and gaining between 4.5 per cent and 5.6 per cent," Mishra added.
Brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher in its latest report, 'India Strategy Report - Mandate 2024, Brace of Volatility' also highlighted, "Irrespective of who forms government at the Centre, sectors such as FMCG, auto, healthcare, IT services, private banks, and capital goods are expected to perform well."
The brokerage further added it expects a continuation of the policy if the BJP-led NDA comes back to power and themes around infrastructure, defence, capital goods (CG), new energy, and tourism will continue to do well.
Markets experienced a recovery over the past week, gaining nearly 2 per cent despite mixed signals. Strong global trends and rotational buying in select heavyweight stocks contributed to a gradual rise in the indices.
The market experts anticipate, the key world indices and a record high of the US benchmark index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crossing a new milestone of "40,000" mark is likely to support ongoing recovery in the Indian stock market.
"A moderation in India's CPI and lower-than-expected inflation figures from the US Fed have stimulated investor confidence. Investors are expressing optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts in 2024, supported by favourable US consumer inflation data and improved jobless claims figures, which have also contributed to a surge in gold prices and strengthened the stock market rally," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.
"The release of PMI data for May from both the US and India next week will be closely monitored for further market insights," he added.
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