New Delhi, April 25 India’s commercial vehicle (CV) industry is expected to touch record volume of roughly 12.4 lakh units in fiscal 2027, surpassing the previous peak of fiscal 2019, a report said on Saturday.
The industry posted a strong 13 per cent rebound in fiscal 2026, and the high base will lead to moderation in growth to 5–6 per cent in FY27, the report from Crisil Ratings said.
Domestic demand will remain supportive, buoyed by infrastructure-led activity, steady replacement demand, and boost from Good Services Tax (GST) rate cuts.
Exports, however, could see some near-term disruptions due to the ongoing developments in West Asia, the report added.
The domestic market drives around 92 per cent of the overall volume.
The industry is broadly categorised into light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs), with buses forming a sub-segment within each.
The GST rate cut boosted purchase economics, unlocking deferred demand. Further, easing interest rates, improving freight utilisation, and a pickup in infrastructure and mining activity reinforced the recovery.
“LCVs, accounting for roughly 60 per cent of the industry volume, are projected to grow 5-6 per cent, driven by e-commerce and last-mile delivery demand,” said Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings.
MHCV volumes are expected to expand 4-5 per cent, supported by freight movement and infrastructure spending.
The ongoing shift toward higher-tonnage vehicles, aided by improved road infrastructure, could moderate volume growth even as underlying demand remains steady, he said.
The bus segment is expected to grow 3–4 per cent in fiscal 2027, supported by replacement demand and government-led electric bus procurement.
Although buses remain a small sub-segment, electrification in this category is expected to progress faster than in any other CV category, with penetration still in low single digits but rising steadily, the firm predicted.
“Exports, at roughly 8 per cent of overall CV volume, may see a sharp deceleration to 2–4 per cent growth in fiscal 2027 from roughly 17 per cent in fiscal 2026,” said Poonam Upadhyay, Director, Crisil Ratings.
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