New Delhi [India], September 18 : India's march toward 20 per cent ethanol blending in petrol by Ethanol Supply Year (ESY) 2025 is no longer constrained by fears of feedstock scarcity, according to a report by Incred Research.
The report stated that the fresh data showed that less than half of the Food Corporation of India's (FCI) rice buffer stock is sufficient to meet the entire blending requirement.
The report stated "Just 23mmt of rice translates into 11bnL (billion litres) of ethanol - enough to meet India's entire 20 per cent blending requirement. Food Corporation of India's rice buffer norm stands at a modest 13.5mmt while the current stock level has ballooned to 54mmt - that's 4x the required buffer".
So the report outlined that it means even if less than half of the surplus rice stock were diverted, the blending goal would be comfortably met. And this calculation does not even factor in maize or other feedstocks, where production trends are equally strong.
As per data, India's grain production machine is clearly firing on all cylinders. Rice output touched 150 mmt in FY25, the highest ever, compared with a 10-year average of 120 mmt.
Maize, too, recorded an all-time high output of 42 mmt in FY25, against a long-term average of 30 mmt. Both crops are expected to post even stronger numbers in FY26, underlining a structural breakout in farm productivity.
The surplus is not just statistical. With FCI's rice stocks at four times the required buffer and procurement still underway, the country sits on a mountain of potential ethanol feedstock.
Surplus stocks pose a challenge for the Food Corporation of India (FCI) as they strain storage capacity and raise the risk of grains rotting due to prolonged holding and inadequate warehousing facilities.
The implications are significant, while sugar-based ethanol producers face policy headwinds and stagnant prices, grain-based distilleries are uniquely positioned to capitalise on record harvests and excess inventories.
The report shared that the ethanol program is no longer hostage to feedstock worries. Less than half of FCI's rice buffer alone is enough to secure the blending target, and with record maize output adding to the supply cushion, India's ethanol story has decisively quashed the scarcity myth.
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