Chennai, Feb 21 Credit rating agency ICRA on Wednesday said India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow at 6 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.6 per cent in Q2 FY2024.
Further, the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is estimated to ease to 6 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.4 per cent in Q2 FY2024, driven by the industrial and agriculture sectors, amid an improvement in the services sector.
According to ICRA, the anticipated deterioration in the industrial sector growth in Q3 FY2024 is partly attributable to an adverse base effect and a deceleration in volume expansion even as the continued deflation in commodity prices kept profitability of some sectors favourable.
Additionally, a mild 0.2 per cent contraction in the total spending of Government of India and 25 state governments (all states except Arunachal Pradesh, Goa and Manipur) in Q3 FY2024 is expected to have dulled the GVA growth in the quarter.
“Lower volume growth for the industrial sector, flagging momentum in certain indicators of investment activity, a slowdown in Government expenditure and an uneven monsoon are expected to dampen the GDP growth to 6.0 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.6 per cent in Q2 FY2024,” Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head-Research & Outreachs said.
ICRA estimates the industrial GVA growth to record a broad-based moderation to 8.8 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 13.2 per cent in Q2 FY2024, led by all four sub-sectors, namely, manufacturing, electricity, construction and mining and quarrying.
ICRA projects manufacturing GVA expansion at a healthy 10 per cent in Q3 FY2024, twice as high as the 4.7 per cent seen in Q1 FY2024, albeit lower than the 13.9 per cent recorded in Q2 FY2024, amid a deceleration in volume growth as reflected in the manufacturing Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
Owing to the decline in output across all major kharif crops projected by the First Advance Estimates, ICRA projects the growth in agriculture, forestry, and fishing to dip to a muted 0.5 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 1.2 per cent in Q2 FY2024.
This would be the lowest growth print for the sector since Q4 FY2019 (-0.9 per cent). In contrast to industry and agriculture, ICRA estimates the services GVA YoY growth to rise to 6.5 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 5.8 per cent in Q2 FY2024, led by trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting.
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