New Delhi, Feb 24 India’s GDP growth in the third quarter of FY26 is likely to come at 8-8.1 per cent, an SBI Research report said on Tuesday, adding that the domestic economy has maintained strong growth momentum despite global headwinds.
High-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity in Q3 FY26 (October-December 2025).
“Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season,” said Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.
As per the first advance estimate, GDP is estimated to growth at 7.4 per cent in FY26, with growth largely driven by domestic demand.
India is updating its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, with the new series scheduled for release on February 27.
This revision, along with an updated CPI base (2024), aims to better reflect the current economic structure, including increased digital commerce and service.
The overhaul includes better measurement of the informal sector and new data sources like GST, potentially placing India as the world's fourth-largest economy.
"Given significant methodological changes and new data series to be released, it is difficult to predict the extent of revision,” said the report.
The new methodology will incorporate more granular data, including GST records, e-Vahan (vehicle registrations), and information on natural gas consumption.
The Second Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26 along with past 3 financial years’ GDP estimates as well as Quarterly GDP estimates as per the new base 2022-23 will be released on February 27.
As per the latest Economic Survey, India’s potential GDP is estimated to be around 7 per cent and estimated to grow in the range of 6.8-7.2 per cent during FY27.
Meanwhile, the global economic environment is characterised by high uncertainty, with growth projected at 3.3 per cent both in 2025 and 2026 but remain uneven elsewhere due to geopolitical tensions, high debt, and structural shifts like digitalisation and decarbonisation.
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