New Delhi [India], August 14 : India's export data for July 2025 is due later in the day. The figures are expected to show no major deviations, with business activity remaining steady through the month.
In the best-case scenario, analysts note the trade figures may surprise on the positive side. Reports had suggested that some American businesses had front loaded imports from India, eyeing to stack-up before the tariffs are implemented.
Initially, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on Indian goods plus an unspecified penalty for importing Russian oil, even as there were hopes of an interim India-US trade deal that would have otherwise helped avoid elevated tariffs. A few days later, he topped it up with another 25 per cent as penalty, taking the total to 50 per cent, to be effective from August 27.
Previous data suggests that overall exports, merchandise and services combined, rose to USD 67.98 billion in June 2025, compared to USD 63.83 billion in the same month last year, which was a jump of nearly 6.5 per cent.
Overall imports also had a marginal rise, reaching USD 71.50 billion in June 2025 compared to USD 71.14 billion in June 2024, indicating stable domestic demand amid softening global commodity prices.
India's overall trade deficit narrowed significantly to USD 3.51 billion in June 2025, down from USD 7.30 billion in June 2024, as exports outpaced imports on a year-on-year basis.
The improved trade balance in June was seen as a positive sign for India's current account position and broader economic fundamentals.
India's merchandise exports clocked in at USD 35.14 billion in June 2025. Adding a fresh market dimension, users on Probo, the country's biggest opinion trading platform placed an 80% probability at approximately 11:30 a.m. on August 14 that July's merchandise exports would reach USD 36 billion or more - exceeding the June figure.
The production linked incentive (PLI) scheme of the government has helped India's export growth and make Indian manufacturers globally competitive, attract investments, enhance exports, integrate India into the global supply chain and reduce dependency on imports.
The government has set a target of USD 1 trillion of exports in the current financial year 2025-26.
In the last fiscal India's total exports have touched an all-time high of USD 824.9 billion. This was a growth of 6.01 per cent over USD 778.1 billion of exports in 2023-24, which was a new milestone for India's exports.
The FY 2024-25 exports had exceeded government's initial anticipation of USD 800 billion to USD 824.9 billion.
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