Taipei [Taiwan], January 23 : Experts believe that less than 15 per cent of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSMC) advanced manufacturing processes will be relocated to the United States by the end of 2029, according to a report by Focus Taiwan.
Lien Hsien-ming, president of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, shared this assessment following comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. He recently stated on CNBC that Washington intends to move 40 per cent of Taiwan's supply chain to American soil before the conclusion of U.S. President Donald Trump's second term.
Focus Taiwan notes that TSMC is currently investing USD 65 billion into three facilities in Arizona, with the first fab beginning commercial production in late 2024. The chipmaker has also committed another USD 100 billion for three additional fabs, two assembly plants, and a research centre.
Citing TSMC, Lien said equipment installation has begun at the second Arizona fab, which is scheduled to start mass production in 2027, while construction of the third fab started earlier this year. TSMC is also applying for a permit to build a fourth fab.
After factoring in TSMC's Arizona schedule and its overall output of advanced chips, Lien estimated that less than 15 per cent of the company's high-end processes would be located in the U.S. by the end of Trump's presidency.
The economist suggested that pressure on TSMC might diminish if other major players like Intel, Micron, and Samsung successfully advance their own U.S. projects.
Focus Taiwan also highlighted a recent agreement between the U.S. and Taiwan to reduce tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20 per cent to 15 per cent. This deal involves a USD 250 billion investment from Taiwanese tech and energy sectors into the U.S., supplemented by USD 250 billion in credit guarantees from the Taiwanese government to support these industries.
Lien cautioned the public against being discouraged by Secretary Lutnick's rhetoric, clarifying that the actual direct investment commitment is USD 250 billion, rather than the USD 500 billion "down payment" figure Lutnick mentioned during his interview.
According to the Focus Taiwan report, Lien believes the U.S. Commerce Secretary is overstating these commitments as a tactical move to exert pressure on Taiwan, a strategy that has similarly been applied to Japan and South Korea.
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