New Delhi [India], May 1 : The Indian stock market will closely monitor developments in the Middle East, the earnings season, and April auto sales data in the coming week, as investors navigate persistent global and domestic headwinds, SBI Securities said in its weekly outlook.
"Any positive breakthrough in the Middle East could improve risk appetite and support equity markets," the brokerage noted, adding that there are no clear signs of de-escalation yet despite ongoing USThe -Iran negotiations. SBI Securities also flagged that over 250 companies are scheduled to announce results between May 1 and May 8, while April auto sales data will provide key insights into consumer demand and rural-urban momentum. On the political front, state election results due on May 4 are also expected to influence near-term sentiment.
Domestic exchanges NSE and BSE will remain closed on Friday for the Maharashtra Day holiday. The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) will be shut for the morning session but will resume trading in the evening between 5 pm and 11:30 pm. Most major Asian markets are also closed for the May Day holiday, though Australia and Japan saw gains on Friday, tracking Wall Street's record run overnight. The S&P 500 rose 1.02 per cent to close at a record 7,209.01, while the Nasdaq jumped 0.89 per cent to fresh highs. The Dow added 1.62 per cent.
Indian benchmark indices ended the week on a flattish but positive note, snapping last week's losses. The Nifty 50 gained 0.4 per cent week-on-week to close at 23,997.6, and the Sensex rose 0.3 per cent to 76,913.5. Broader markets outperformed, with the BSE Smallcap up 2.0 per cent and Midcap up 0.3 per cent.
The week was marked by volatility as Brent crude surged to a near four-year high of $120 per barrel after reports of potential US military action against Iran, before settling at $110.4 for July delivery. The spike has raised inflation and fiscal concerns for oil-importing economies like India. The rupee also weakened further, inching closer to Rs 95 per USD.
March quarter earnings season has delivered mixed results till now. While most IT companies missed estimates, leading to sharp corrections, several firms, including Bandhan Bank, AU Small Finance Bank, Maruti Suzuki, HUL, ICICI Bank, Coal India and Hindustan Zinc, posted strong numbers, lending selective support to the broader market.
Globally, the US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50 per cent-3.75 per cent but struck a hawkish tone, indicating rates could remain elevated as U.S. inflation stays at 3.3 per cent, above its 2 per cent target.
Sectorally, BSE IT, Oil & Gas, Healthcare and Realty were the top performers, gaining 2.7 per cent, 2.4 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively, while Bankex and PSU indices declined 2.3 per cent and 0.9 per cent. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers at Rs 16,870 crore for the week, with domestic institutions providing partial support through Rs 8,098 crore in inflows till April 29.
Technically, SBI Securities sees 24,300-24,350 as key resistance for Nifty. A sustained move above 24,350 could trigger a rally towards 24,500 and 24,700. On the downside, 23,800-23,750 remains crucial support, with a breakdown potentially leading to 23,600 and 23,400.
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