New Delhi, March 16 India’s benchmark index Nifty 50 is likely to touch 34,000–35,000 levels over the next three years due to earnings growth, stronger consumption and banking credit expansion, a report claimed on Monday.
From these factors and continued investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, Nifty earnings per share may rise to Rs 1,281 in FY27, Rs 1,463 in FY28 and Rs 1,650–1,700 by FY29, the report from investment platform smallcase said.
Mid-caps led market returns, outperforming large caps during the past four years when global markets experienced shocks from multiple geopolitical conflicts, the report said.
Indian markets delivered about 12.7 per cent CAGR demonstrated notable resilience, with most geopolitical shocks triggering short-term corrections of around 2–8 per cent, followed by swift recoveries within weeks, during times of conflict in last 4 years.
This performance has been supported by the strength of the domestic economy, improving corporate earnings, and rising retail participation in the stock market, the firm said.
Assuming the index maintains its current valuation multiple of about 20.9x earnings, the trend could translate into approximately 12.8–14 per cent compound annual growth rate (CARG), the report added.
The firm highlighted mid‑caps delivered CAGRs of about 18.4 per cent during this period versus 13.4 per cent for small caps and 9.8 per cent for large caps.
Defence and aerospace companies have emerged as key beneficiaries of heightened geopolitical tensions, supported by rising global defence spending and stronger domestic procurement initiatives, it said.
Oil and gas producers have also historically performed well during geopolitical crises due to supply disruptions and rising crude oil prices. Commodity-linked sectors such as metals and mining have similarly witnessed phases of outperformance during periods of supply constraints and commodity price rallies, it added.
Meanwhile, manufacturing and capital goods companies are gaining prominence as global supply chains undergo structural shifts, the firm suggested.
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