New Delhi [India], April 16 : After a period of decline, private capex is expected to witness a significant recovery in the medium term, according to a report by Antique Stock Broking Limited.
"The outlook for private capex hasn't dimmed, and we believe that there is a growing possibility of a meaningful uptick in private capex in the medium term," the report said.
The share of private capital expenditure (CapEx) in India's Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has dropped to a ten-year low of 33 per cent in FY2024, according to ICRA.
GFCF, which includes the gross addition to fixed assets and intangibles, forms about 30 per cent of India's nominal GDP.
The listed corporates increased their CapEx spending by 28 per cent in FY2023 and 12 per cent in FY2024, and unlisted entities experienced a contraction in FY2024, dragging overall private CapEx growth.
With the potential for 13-14 per cent growth in Gross Fixed Capital Formation due to government spending and private capex, import substitution, global supply chain shifts, and strategic capex like defence, the report believes that industries such as defence, real estate, and select niche infrastructure developers will thrive.
The report highlights strong momentum in high-end consumer spending, which is expected to continue supporting the earnings outlook for sectors such as hotels and hospitality, jewellery, alcoholic beverages, and select automobiles.
"There is meaningful momentum in the upper end of the consumption basket, which will continue to support earnings outlook for hotels and hospitality, jewellery, alcoholic beverages and select automobiles," the report added.
The report anticipated that India is well poised to grow at a rate greater than 6.5 per cent CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) over the next two years.
In the first quarter, the economy witnessed a moderation in the first quarter of financial year 2025 (1QFY25), led by domestic factors, but growth has picked up from 3QFY25.
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