New Delhi [India], September 22 : Real-time A2A payments are gaining critical mass, and their growth is likely to moderate at 4 per cent annually over the next five years, noted a research report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The report, however, adds that India's UPI now powers over 19 billion transactions monthly.
"Global payments revenue reached USD 1.9 trillion in 2024, but future growth will slow. After growing at 8.8 per cent annually since 2019, revenue expansion is expected to ease to 4 per cent annually. Transaction-based revenues remain strong, while deposit margin tailwinds slacken," noted the BCG report
The report adds, global payments revenue is projected to grow to USD 2.4 trillion by 2029. The industry is undergoing a foundational reset as agentic AI, digital currencies, and fintech business models begin to shape the next wave of expansion.
These findings come from BCG's 23rd annual Global Payments Report, released on Monday. The report draws on BCG's proprietary Global Payments Model and includes forecasts and market dynamics.
"Payments is no longer just about moving money; it is about shaping the very fabric of commerce and financial sovereignty. Real-time A2A, digital currencies, and agentic AI are expected to redefine how trillions flow not just within borders but across borders. Those who act decisively now will set the pace for the industry's next chapter," said Vivek Mandhata, managing director & partner, BCG
As per the report, real-time A2A payment volumes rose 40 per cent globally in 2024. These systems now account for around a quarter of digital retail payments worldwide, even exceeding 50 per cent of transactions in selected markets like India and Brazil. In the Middle East and Africa, where real-time systems are still emerging, adoption is projected to reach more than 50 per cent by 2030.
"Looking at overall growth (transaction-related and non-transaction-related revenue combined), Latin America will lead with 7.9 per cent projected annual growth from 2024 to 2029, followed by the Middle East and Africa at 6.8 per cent," the report said.
"This is a turning point for the industry," said Inderpreet Batra, BCG managing director and senior partner and global head of the firm's payments and fintech segment.
"Traditional growth levers are losing force, but new drivers, including agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation, are rapidly coming into focus. The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade," he added.
According to BCG research, agentic AI is set to influence over USD 1 trillion in e-commerce spending. Around 81 per cent of US consumers expect to use agentic AI tools to shop, which will shape more than half of all online purchases in the near future.
"We're entering an era where growth and complexity go hand in hand," said Markus Ampenberger, BCG managing director and partner. "The next winners in payments won't just be fast adopters of technology. They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business and operating models, and customer value propositions."
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