New Delhi, April 8 Remittances to India are likely to reach an all‑time high of $137–140 billion in FY26 before moderating to $135–137 billion in FY27, amid escalation in West Asia, a report said on Wednesday.
Further, enabling true dematerialisation of Retail Direct holdings could boost interoperability and attract strong interest to debt markets from retail investors, the report from SBI Research said.
Analysing the language of the central bank governor in the monetary policy meeting, the firm said the recent statement was the most cautious or hawkish out of the last eight statements but did not signal an imminent rate hike.
"The choice of words and the latent signal the latest statement carries reflects deep understanding of the evolving geo-economic situation in the world without hinting at any imminent rate hike with regulatory gaze hobbling between growth and inflationary concerns," the report said.
The governor highlighted that rapid depreciation thrust upon the INR off late is not in sync with India’s macro fundamentals and a course correction was a much-needed recourse with currency now retreating towards its implied value, the report said.
On liquidity, SBI Research said the Reserve Bank of India has injected Rs. 4.6 lakh crore since the February monetary policy meeting, including OMO purchases of Rs. 1 lakh crore and variable rate repo operations of Rs. 3.6 lakh crore of various tenures.
RBI projected average inflation at 4.6 per cent for FY27, with core inflation at 4.4 per cent for FY27. It estimated FY27 real GDP growth at 6.9 per cent with progressive upgrades in the second half of current fiscal. Further, volatility in crude oil and other commodity prices along-with possible El Niño conditions impart considerable volatility to inflation.
However, the near-term food supply prospects have been boosted by a robust rabi crop providing some comfort, the central bank said.
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