New Delhi, Jan 3 Traffic and toll collection growth is expected to improve to 5-9 per cent in FY26, which will drive stability in the toll road sector through FY27, a new report has said.
The report from ICRA said that the outlook on the toll road sector remains stable, paving the way for sustained growth.
“On the back of benign WPI inflation, the inflation-linked toll rate hike is projected at around 3.2 per cent for newer projects and 1.6 per cent to 2 per cent for older projects in FY2027,” said M Rajashekar Reddy, Assistant Vice President & Sector Head, ICRA.
As a result, toll collection growth is expected to improve 5-8 per cent in FY27. On the back of healthy toll collections and benign O&M costs, the debt coverage metrics for BOT toll road projects are expected to remain adequate, the report noted.
The report also highlights that recent tightening in bidding norms for Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) and Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects is a positive step. However, competitive intensity is unlikely to ease materially as several players continue to qualify under the stringent norms.
The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) raised Rs 12,357 crore through Toll‑Operate‑Transfer bundles in the first nine months of FY26, taking cumulative monetisation since FY19 to Rs 1,04,990 crore. With additional bundles in the pipeline, overall proceeds are expected to reach approximately Rs 1.3 lakh crore by the end of this fiscal.
Road execution by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) stood at 3,468 km between April-October 2025, compared to 3,920 km in the corresponding period last year. For the full fiscal year FY2026, the agency forecasted road execution to moderate to 9,000-9,500 km, marginally lower than the 10,660 km achieved in FY25.
The ratings agency estimated road awards to reach 8,500-9,000 km in FY2026, slightly higher than the estimated 7,500-8,000 km in FY2025. A meaningful pick-up in order awards from the Ministry is considered vital to ease competitive intensity and support the sector, it noted.
Despite the near-term challenges in construction, the outlook for the operational toll road sector remains stable, supported by expectations of steady traffic growth and controlled inflationary pressures, it added.
Further, it maintained a 'Stable outlook' on the broader construction sector, projecting a revenue growth of 8-10 per cent for FY2027, marginally better than the 6-8 per cent growth anticipated for FY2026.
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