New Delhi [India], December 29 : India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is expected to show a sharp recovery in November 2025, rising to 4.0 per cent year-on-year, supported by post-festival normalisation of activity and higher manufacturing output, according to a report by Union Bank of India.
The report said IIP growth is likely to improve to 4.0 per cent in Nov'25, up from 0.4 per cent in October 2025 and 5.0 per cent in November 2024.
The improvement is attributed to a rebound in manufacturing activity and a consumption-led recovery following the festive season.
With Diwali in October, industrial activity weakened due to holiday-related disruptions, resulting in a temporary slowdown in output. The November data is expected to reflect a normalisation of production levels.
The report noted that industrial production growth in November is likely to be driven by a pickup in manufacturing, supported by festive demand and GST cuts.
The report added that going forward, progress on the India-US trade deal could provide further support to manufacturing, especially export-led sectors, and encourage private capital expenditure.
High-frequency indicators point to resilient economic activity in the post-festival month of November. While GST revenue growth moderated to 0.7 per cent in November, compared to 4.6 per cent in October, this slowdown was largely due to GST rate rationalisation.
Other indicators showed a stronger trend. E-way bill generation rose sharply by 27.6 per cent, up from 8.2 per cent in October, indicating improved goods movement. Petroleum consumption growth accelerated to 3.0 per cent, compared to -0.4 per cent in the previous month.
The report also highlighted robust growth in digital payments, both in terms of transaction value and volume. However, electricity demand declined for the second consecutive month, primarily due to the early onset of winter.
Survey-based indicators showed mixed trends. PMI Manufacturing eased to 56.6 in November, from 59.2 in October, indicating some moderation, while Services PMI improved to 59.8, up from 58.9 in the previous month.
Automobile production emerged as a key growth driver in November. Auto production rose by 22.3 per cent, marking the highest growth since February 2024, with all segments recording double-digit expansion.
October IIP numbers slipped to 0.4 per cent, down from 4.0 per cent in September, mainly due to fewer working days as major festivals such as Dussehra, Diwali and Chhath fell during the month.
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