Kabul, Dec 8 As Afghanistan deepens economic ties with India and the Central Asian countries, Pakistan risks strategic isolation amid emerging transit alternatives that could diminish the influence of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a report said on Monday.
It added that for Afghanistan, long-term success will hinge on sustained infrastructure investment, active diplomatic outreach, particularly in seeking sanctions relief for Iranian-linked ports.
“Afghanistan’s authorities have intensified efforts to diversify trade corridors, gradually reducing dependence on Pakistan following repeated and lengthy border closures that have disrupted bilateral commerce. Major crossings such as Torkham and Chaman – which previously accounted for an estimated 40 percent of Afghanistan’s official trade – experienced extended shutdowns throughout late 2024 and into 2025 amid escalating allegations related to cross-border militancy and security incidents,” a report in Afghanistan's leading news agency Khaama Press detailed.
“These closures, often lasting several weeks, have reportedly inflicted monthly losses exceeding USD 200 million on Afghan exporters of perishable fruits, vegetables, and dried nuts. Imports of fuel, wheat, and pharmaceuticals were also delayed, contributing to domestic inflation and periodic shortages. In response, Kabul has increasingly prioritised alternative routes, including India via Iran’s Chabahar Port and new air links, alongside expanded overland connections with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, aiming to build a more resilient, multipolar trade network less vulnerable to sudden disruptions,” it noted.
According to the report, Islamabad's concerns over Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) activities in Afghanistan and Kabul's criticism of Pakistan's visa restrictions have widened the mistrust between the two countries.
“The situation escalated in October 2025 during border clashes that prompted indefinite closures under counter-terrorism justifications. Prior to these developments, annual bilateral trade was estimated between USD 2.5 and 3 billion, with Afghanistan exporting around USD 1.5 billion in agricultural produce while importing fuel and basic commodities through Karachi and Gwadar ports. That figure is now believed to have fallen below USD 1 billion,” the report stressed.
“Afghan agricultural products, such as grapes, have reportedly sold for significantly higher prices in Pakistani markets amid supply volatility, while hundreds of Afghan and Pakistani cargo trucks were left stranded near border points. Analysts suggest that although Pakistan sought to pressure Kabul regarding militant sanctuaries, the interruptions have also reduced Pakistan’s leverage as Afghan traders increasingly rely on costlier yet more predictable alternative routes,” it stated.
The report said Afghan officials estimated that non-Pakistani trade could rise to $10 billion by 2027 if current diversification strategies continue and logistical hurdles are resolved.
“While the current shift has been shaped by prolonged border tensions, policymakers emphasise that a broader network of trade partners may offer Afghanistan greater economic resilience and stability in the years ahead,” it noted.
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