Canberra, May 17 Australia could see homelessness quadruple within a decade under a high-emissions climate scenario, a new study finds, highlighting the growing intersection between climate change and housing affordability.
The study finds that even well-intentioned housing policies could significantly worsen housing affordability and homelessness under the impacts of climate change, according to a statement from Australia's University of Sydney released Friday.
Researchers found that climate-driven pressures -- rising insurance costs, disrupted construction supply chains, and shifting investment behaviours -- are likely to intensify housing stress nationwide.
The study projects that homeownership could become twice as expensive, while rents may rise by as much as 45 per cent under a high-emissions trajectory.
Even in a low-emissions scenario, homelessness could double and rental affordability decline by 23 per cent compared to 2020 levels, reports Xinhua news agency.
Using nearly two decades of national housing, income, and demographic data, the researchers modelled how climate-driven shocks and policies interact to shape affordability, homelessness, and rental pressures.
They found that poorly designed policies that focus on insurance premiums or mortgage rates could deepen inequality by shifting financial pressure onto renters.
"Any new housing policies need to undergo climate-change simulations to make sure they don't deepen inequality," said Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh from the University of Sydney School of Project Management.
"Future climate shocks need to be factored in when developing new housing policies and plans," said Habibi-Moshfegh, lead author of the study published in the journal Cities.
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