Washington, Jan 28 Uncertainty is growing over Bangladesh’s upcoming elections as US engagement declines and democratic support weakens, raising concerns about political stability in a country that directly affects India’s regional security environment, a senior US lawmaker has said.
Mark Warner, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told IANS in an exclusive interview that he could not judge whether the elections would be free and fair. “I do not know,” he said when asked about the credibility of the polls on February 12.
Warner said US influence on the ground has diminished. “With the dismantling of American soft power and USAID… we don’t have the same connections now that we had,” he said, referring to the shutdown of USAID by the Trump Administration.
He said there was early optimism after the political change in Bangladesh. “We were all hopeful… after the revolution,” Warner said, referring to the emergence of Mohammad Yunus as a short-term caretaker.
That optimism has faded, he said. “The young people in Bangladesh are finding it’s harder to govern,” Warner said.
He said regional dynamics could further complicate the situation. “I’m not sure how much resentment on the Bangladesh side, because I believe the former prime minister has still sought refuge… in India,” he said.
Despite the uncertainty, Warner said he hoped the process would remain democratic. “I’m hopeful for free elections in Bangladesh,” he said in response to a question.
Warner said Bangladesh faces multiple pressures beyond politics. He pointed to poverty, economic stress, and environmental risks as persistent challenges.
He also addressed concerns about extremism. Warner urged caution against broad conclusions. “We’ve not seen the radical Islamic ideology appear too much in Bangladesh,” he said, noting that isolated incidents should not define the country’s direction.
Warner placed Bangladesh within India’s wider security environment. “India lives in a dangerous neighborhood,” he said.
He cited challenges not only in Bangladesh, but also in Myanmar and Pakistan. Warner said instability in the region has long-term consequences for India.
He said the decline in US development engagement has strategic costs. “America’s power came not just through its military and business,” Warner said.
For decades, he said, US influence also flowed through development and democracy-building efforts. “Soft power on how you help economic development and democracy building” played a major role, he said.
Warner said cuts to those programmes have reduced US leverage in countries like Bangladesh. He warned that gaps in engagement could emerge during sensitive political transitions.
He said sustained international involvement remains important. Warner argued that democratic institutions need long-term support, not episodic attention.
Developments in Bangladesh, he said, also intersect with wider geopolitical competition in South Asia.
Bangladesh has undergone major political changes in recent years. Its elections are closely watched by neighbours and international partners.
For India, stability in Bangladesh carries direct implications. The two countries share a long border, deep trade ties, and security concerns linked to migration and regional influence in eastern.
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