New Delhi, Sep 23 Chief advisor to the interim government of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, during his meeting with US special envoy on South Asia Sergio Gor, ensured that elections in his country would be free and fair. Yunus said that the elections would be held in February 2026; the country is fully prepared for it, he also told Gor.
While Yunus may have assured Gor about the elections, there is hardly any optimism among the political class and the people of Bangladesh about free and fair elections. Reports by the Indian Intelligence agencies say that there is a likelihood of widespread violence ahead of the elections because none of the parties are confident about the manner in which the polls would be conducted.
Indian officials say that the problem is with the Jamaat-e-Islami. There are signals that the Jamaat would control the election and is capable of even rigging it. While opinion polls in the absence of the Awami League suggested that the BNP would win the elections. It, however, indicated that the BNP is unlikely to form the government on its own and may need the support of the Jamaat to form the next government.
The ISI, which backs the Jamaat, would, however, want it to be the senior partner in the government, and this has created doubts in the minds of people about how fair the polls would be. The Jamaat has the backing of Yunus, and they may try and rig the results.
If the Jamaat feels that it may not be able to rig the elections, then it, along with the newly formed National Citizen Party, may push to postpone the elections and let the current system be in place. The National Citizen Party would back the Jamaat as its members were part of the July Movement that brought down the Sheikh Hasina government.
Another reason why many are skeptical about the elections is due to the results of the Dhaka University elections held recently. The Jamaat’s students’ wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, won by a landslide. The BNP’s student wing, Chhatra Dal, finished second, but secured less than one-third of the Shibir’s vote.
This led to doubts about how fair the elections may have been. The BNP congratulated the Shibir, but questioned the transparency of the elections. These developments clearly show the kind of sentiment in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh watchers say with the Awami League out of the picture, the BNP is projected to win. However, this would be the case only if the elections are free and fair.
The ISI has been pushing the Jamaat to rig the polls and become the senior partner. However, if this plan does not go through, then Pakistan would prefer to deal with the existing establishment. For Pakistan, both Yunus and the Jamaat are suitable. Both push Islamabad’s agenda and have also ensured that ties with India are cold.
With the Jamaat’s backing, Yunus has given Pakistan more than what it may have expected. The sea routes have been opened up to Pakistan, and visa norms have been relaxed.
Intelligence Bureau officials say these developments have only led to an increase in ISI activity in Bangladesh. The ISI officials roam around freely in the country and are actively helping terror outfits such as the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh and Harkat-ul-Jihadi Islami set up shop close to India’s border. The other issue for the Indian security forces is that the Islamic State is a key player in Bangladesh.
Many terror groups and radical elements follow the violent Islamic State ideology, and with the ISI in the picture, this terror group would become stronger. Further, the new bonhomie between the ISI and Islamic State Khorasan Province would also give the terror group a boost in Bangladesh.
Taking into account all these factors, the confidence regarding a free and fair election is extremely low. Last week, BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed had questioned the Jamaat, asking why it is trying to obstruct the election if it is so confident of returning to power.
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