Brasilia [Brazil], February 6 : Brazil is poised to register its highest-ever coffee production in 2026, with output projected to touch a historic 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags, according to the first official crop outlook released by the National Supply Company (Conab).
The estimate marks a 17.1 per cent jump over the 2025 harvest and, if realised, would be the largest volume recorded in the country's official coffee production history, as reported by Brasil 247.
The forecast was detailed in Conab's First Coffee Crop Survey for 2026, released on Thursday.
The agency attributed the expected surge to a mix of favourable weather conditions and structural improvements that supported crop development throughout the season.
As cited by Brasil 247, Brazil is entering a positive phase of the biennial production cycle, a natural pattern in coffee farming that alternates between higher and lower yields.
During this phase, the cultivated area under production is expected to expand by 4.1 per cent to nearly 1.9 million hectares.
At the same time, better climatic conditions, along with greater use of technology and improved farming practices, have pushed average productivity higher.
Yields are projected at 34.2 bags per hectare, up 12.4 per cent from last season.
If confirmed, the 2026 crop would surpass the previous record of 63.1 million bags set in 2020.
Conab said the improvement reflects not only short-term gains but also sustained advancements in Brazil's coffee production systems.
Arabica coffee, which is more susceptible to biennial variations, is expected to show the strongest growth.
Output is forecast at 44.1 million bags, up 23.3 per cent year-on-year, supported by expanded planting areas, balanced weather, and the physiological recovery typical of a high-yield cycle.
Conilon production is estimated at 22.1 million bags, reflecting a 6.4 per cent rise and potentially setting a new record for the variety.
State-wise projections also point to widespread growth.
Minas Gerais, the country's largest producer of Arabica, is expected to harvest 32.4 million bags, aided by improved rainfall during key flowering stages.
São Paulo's output is estimated at 5.5 million bags, while Bahia is projected to produce 4.6 million bags.
Espirito Santo, the leading conilon producer, may see output rise 9 per cent to 19 million bags.
Rondonia is expected to record an 18.3 per cent increase to 2.7 million bags, driven by the adoption of more productive clonal plants.
Despite a 17.1 per cent fall in export volumes in 2025, Brazil posted record coffee export earnings of USD 16.1 billion, buoyed by a 57.2 per cent surge in average prices.
For 2026, prices are likely to remain firm as global consumption continues to rise.
The US Department of Agriculture projects worldwide demand to reach 173.9 million bags, while global inventories are expected to stay tight, supporting elevated international coffee prices.
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