New Delhi, April 14 The March Economic Outlook prepared by the Finance Division of the Pakistan Government has stated that oil markets remain on tenterhooks, multiple supply outages have heightened crude markets, while geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US have intensified. As a result, oil markets remain volatile, according to an article in the Karachi-based Business Recorder.
On March 30, the IMF stated that in the Middle East and South Asia, already meagre reserves and limited market access makes external shocks to financing conditions more dangerous – "especially as higher import bills for fuel, fertiliser, and food widen trade deficits and put pressure on currencies.”
This observation is particularly relevant to Pakistan given that reserves as on March 19, 2026 were 16.4 billion dollars – an amount that is a massive improvement from the under 3 billion dollars (2916.7 million dollars) reserves on February 3, 2023, yet they constitute over 12 billion-dollar annual roll-overs by three friendly countries with the rest borrowed from other multilaterals/bilaterals and maturing debt equity from issuance of Eurobonds/Sukuk, the article points out.
It highlights that this month alone the United Arab Emirates requested a 3.45 billion dollar loan recall from Pakistan (there was reportedly no request to cut the 800 million dollars owed by Etisalat to Pakistan since the privatization of PTCL decades ago) and an additional 1.4 billion dollars was repaid on maturing Eurobonds this week past.
Pakistan’s access to foreign commercial markets has remained compromised for the past three to four years due to a fragile economy that accounts for non-investment grade rating by the three international rating agencies.
In spite of the much touted rating improvement last year, sourced to the country being on an active IMF programme, Pakistan’s rating remains in the highly speculative category defined as at material default risk with a limited margin of safety with financial commitments being met though capacity for continued payment is vulnerable to deterioration in the business and economic environment.
The Middle East conflict has certainly deteriorated Pakistan’s business and economic environment further, as it has globally, the article further states.
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