Riyadh, Jan 22 A defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan could mean Saudi Arabia shouldering new obligations and taking on extra risks it didn’t have before, a report has highlighted.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is reportedly exploring an extensive defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan, building on the Saudi-Pakistani mutual defence agreement (SDMA) signed in September 2025, Shay Gal, a strategic analyst specialising in international security, foreign policy, and geopolitical crisis management, wrote in the Eurasian Times.
"Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 can’t be outsourced. The entire plan depends on one thing that cannot be delegated: predictability," wrote Gal.
"However, a defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan, which could involve their own crisis and conflicts, does the opposite. It brings uncertainty and risk, which markets dislike. For markets, a treaty is not an umbrella. It is a contingent liability," he added.
The trilateral agreement would move Saudi Arabia's security centre of gravity away from the Gulf and put it into the volatile hands of non-Gulf powers.
"Ankara and Islamabad walk away with real leverage and a lot more room to maneuver. Riyadh, on the other hand, ends up shouldering new obligations and taking on extra risks it didn’t have before," the piece mentioned.
The Eurasian Times article detailed that if Riyadh weakens a Gulf-built platform while elevating Turkey within its security architecture, investors will treat Turkey’s routes as the safer bet. Saudi Arabia then loses twice: it slows the corridor meant to make the Kingdom a hub, while accelerating the one designed to make Turkey indispensable.
"A defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan would re-price Saudi Arabia as a risk rather than a security. It would bind the Kingdom to obligations it does not control, while others monetise permanence without surrendering autonomy," the author stated.
The writer mentioned that once security is formalised, routine support would become an expectation.
"Rollovers, deposit extensions, and deferred oil facilities grow harder to refuse, not through coercion, but through reputation. Saudi credibility becomes tied to Pakistan’s capacity. Pakistan’s capacity becomes tied to Saudi liquidity.
Turkey's upside is equally clear. A formal security role in the Gulf would give Ankara real legitimacy in the region, a much larger market for its booming defence industry, and direct access to Gulf militaries," it mentioned.
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