Pakistan: Punjab braces for "super flood" as Ravi-Chenab converge; threatening Multan, Muzaffargarh

Multan [Pakistan], September 4 : Provincial authorities in Punjab on Wednesday braced for "super flood" as the convergence of the swollen Ravi and Chenab rivers near Khanewal threatened the districts of Multan and Muzaffargarh, Dawn reported. Officials warned of a "dual threat" despite several controlled breaches over the past week.

The water level at Muhammadwala and Sher Shah was recorded at 412 feet, only five feet below the critical level. Authorities termed the next 12 hours as critical, with pressure at the breaching points increasing after the convergence of the Ravi and Chenab rivers near Khanewal, Dawn added.

To protect urban centres along the eastern rivers, the Punjab government has been conducting controlled breaches to relieve pressure on barrages and main embankments, safeguarding densely populated cities. A decision on whether to conduct breaches at Head Muhammadwala, Sher Shah Flood Bund, and Rangpur is expected within hours, with 17 points identified to save Multan and Muzaffargarh.

The situation is compounded by an enormous surge of approximately 550,000 cusecs that crossed the Marala and Khanki Headworks, recorded passing through Qadirabad Headworks at 530,000 cusecs. Officials projected the surge would reach Trimmu Headworks on Thursday and Multan by Friday, Dawn reported.

"The next 12 hours are extremely critical. We are facing a dual threat: the existing high water from the confluence of the rivers and a new, massive wave heading directly for us. All resources are being mobilised," a Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) official said.

Railway traffic to Karachi and vice versa was suspended from Faisalabad after a bridge on the Chenab River in Abdul Hakim came under water.

In a press conference on Wednesday evening, PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia said the flood crisis was set to intensify as all three major Indian dams were expected to reach maximum capacity within 72 hours, worsening an already catastrophic situation in the Punjab river system. "The next 72 hours are critical," he warned, Dawn reported.

He confirmed that while the Chenab River's water level was currently stable, previously affected districts were likely to face renewed flooding. The Sutlej River has remained in flood-like conditions for two months, while the Ravi River showed rising levels at the Jassar monitoring point.

"Thein Dam is already full and will continue to release water into the Ravi for the next two to three weeks. While the situation in Ravi will not be as severe as before, water levels will definitely increase," DG Kathia said.

In an alarming development, the DG explained that instead of merging with the Chenab as expected, the Ravi's waters are flowing backwards, preventing a decrease in water levels. "Until water levels decrease at Ahmadpur Sial, we will not see any reduction at Sidhnai," he clarified.

The press conference followed a personal assessment of the critical Head Muhammadwala site by Punjab CM Maryam Nawaz. DG Kathia said only four to five feet of capacity remained before reaching critical levels. "At Sher Shah Bridge in Multan, there's significant water pressure with only a two-foot margin remaining. Important decisions regarding a controlled breaching in Multan have already been made to prevent uncontrolled overflow," he said, Dawn reported.

Over 3,900 villages and a population exceeding 3.7 million have been affected across Punjab. The death toll has risen to 46, while over 1.4 million residents and one million animals have been relocated to safer locations, Dawn added.

Relief efforts include 409 flood camps providing essential facilities to around 25,000 displaced persons. In Khanewal and Toba Tek Singh, 136 and 75 villages, respectively, have already been affected, with numbers expected to rise due to renewed surges.

CM Maryam Nawaz visited flood relief camps in Multan, directing district administrations to assess the damage, ensure clean drinking water, and conduct fumigation and dry germicidal sprays in flood relief camps and tent cities.

As of 11 pm on Wednesday, Marala Headworks on the Chenab reported a flow of 444,754 cusecs, falling, while Khanki and Qadirabad Headworks held steady with flows of 558,683 and 557,440 cusecs, respectively. Other key monitoring points, including Chiniot Bridge, Head Muhammadwala, Rivaz Bridge, and Trimmu Headworks, showed varying rising or steady trends.

For the Ravi River, upstream at Jassar, water flow was receding at 82,140 cusecs, while downstream points such as Ravi Syphon and Shahdara showed rising levels. The Sutlej River system remained stable across all monitoring stations, including GS Wala, Sulemanki, Islam, Panjnad Headworks, and Malsi Syphon.

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