New Delhi, March 31 Poverty in Pakistan has surged to 43.5 per cent, according to the Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), indicating a far graver situation than official estimates by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and the Planning Commission, which place poverty at 28.9 per cent, according to an article in the Karachi-headquartered Express Tribune.
In its report, the SPDC, a policy research institute, highlights that urban households have borne the brunt of the increase, with poverty rising faster in cities than in rural areas.
The report attributes the 14.6 per cent disparity between SPDC and official figures to differences in methodology. The PBS relies on a Cost of Basic Needs approach, updating historical poverty lines using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which largely reflects the consumption patterns of better-off households. This approach often underestimates the real cost of living for low-income families and overlooks essential expenses such as healthcare and access to clean water.
In contrast, the SPDC adopts a calorific, or Food Energy Intake, approach, linking household spending to minimum calorie requirements for basic subsistence. This method uses adult-equivalent units, adjusting for household composition, and estimates separate thresholds for urban (2,230 calories) and rural (2,550 calories) populations. The resulting monthly poverty line for 2024-25 is Rs13,476 in urban areas and Rs10,283 in rural areas, significantly higher than the official Rs8,484, the article states.
The SPDC analysis, based on the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2024-25, shows that national poverty has risen from 36.6% in 2018-19 to 43.5% in 2024-25. Urban poverty increased by 10 percentage points, from 32.1% to 42.1%, while rural poverty rose by five percentage points, from 39.3% to 44.3%. In total, approximately 27 million people have been pushed below the poverty line over six years.
"SPDC uses the caloric approach for measuring poverty. This is often regarded as more suitable than the Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) approach, used by the government, especially in developing countries, because it concentrates directly on food requirements," SPDC Managing Director Muhammad Asif Iqbal told The Express Tribune.
He further said that, under the official method, poverty estimates are completely disconnected from the economy's performance, which runs counter to both economic theory and real-world experience.
The SPDC report concludes that Pakistan is facing a broad-based deterioration in living standards, particularly in urban areas, and underscores the urgent need for more accurate and credible measurement of poverty and inequality.
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