Tel Aviv [Israel], January 4 : In the wake of the protests which took place in Iran as the country is facing severe economic strain, Senior Researcher Dennis Citrinowicz toldthat despite the challenging situation in Iran, a regime change is unlikely and that one has to wait and watch how things develop.
The protests come as Iran faces severe economic strain, including a rapidly depreciating currency and high inflation, compounded by years of drought in Tehran, a city of around 10 million people.
Speaking toon the widespread anti-government protests in Iran, Citrinowicz, Senior Researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told ANI, "These riots and protests started because of financial reasons. The economic situation in Iran is extremely bad, especially in terms of the exchange rate between the local currency and the dollar... Even though these events are definitely challenging the regime in Iran, they are still not posing a threat to the survival of the regime... The Iranian regime has coped with much more severe demonstrations in the past".
Answering a question regarding any threat to the current Iranian government, he said, "It's safe to say it is challenging to the regime but not close to toppling the regime. Iran does not have a unified opposition, a unified leadership or even unified demands...We have to wait and see how things will develop. But these are challenging days for the regime that has no silver bullet solution for the economic problem in Iran."
He added that because of the above factors, there is no immediate threat to the regime.
On US President Trump's statement on the protest, Citrinowicz said, "I think that President Trump wants to show himself as someone who is not aligned with President Obama's policy... A lot depends on how the US is willing to use it to protect the protesters..."
When asked about the implications of regime change in Iran and its impact on the regional stability in West Asia, particularly in conflict zones where Iran has an influence, he told ANI, "If we see the regime getting toppled, it will be some sort of fragmentation of Iran, which is something very bad for the region. Iran is a very central location in Central Asia... A stable Iran is important to the region..."
Iranian leaders have adopted a comparatively conciliatory tone, with President Masoud Pezeshkian saying the government is at "fault" for the situation and pledging to seek solutions.
Tensions between Tehran and Washington remain elevated following US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025, during a 12-day escalation involving Israel, an operation Trump later described as a "very successful attack".
Last week, during a joint appearance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump warned that the US would "knock the hell out" of Iran if it advanced its nuclear or ballistic weapons programmes. The remarks came amid renewed Israeli efforts to resume attacks on Iran.
Pezeshkian has said Iran would respond with a "severe" reaction to any aggression.
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