New Delhi, June 1 Southwest monsoon's seasonal rainfall from June to September this year over the country, as a whole, is most likely to be normal and well-distributed spatially, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The rainfall during these four months is expected to be 96 to 104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA)).
However, the IMD's National Weather Forecasting Centre said, quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall during these four months over the country as a whole is likely to be 101 per cent of the LPA with a model error of four per cent up or down.
The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
"Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially and most parts of the country is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall during the season," said the IMD.
The latest global model forecasts indicate the prevailing neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and possibility of development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season, it said.
ENSO is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics.
The weather office further said the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the four homogeneous rainfall areas is most likely to be normal over northwest India from 92-108 per cent and south peninsula from 93-107 percent. It is most likely to be below normal over northeast India (106 per cent)."
The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country is most likely to be above normal (over 106 per cent of LPA), it said.
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