Taipei [Taiwan], October 11 : A leading Taiwanese defence analyst has rejected the notion that China could effectively blockade Taiwan with only a handful of submarines, arguing that such a military manoeuvre is both logistically and strategically implausible, as reported by Taipei Times
According to Taipei Times, a seminar hosted by the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University, Alexander Huang, a strategic studies scholar at Tamkang University, challenged the claim made by China affairs expert Willy Lam.
Lam, a senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, had stated at a symposium in Washington that China could impose a naval blockade around Taiwan simply by deploying four or five submarines.
Huang questioned the sustainability of such a blockade, emphasising that even nuclear-powered submarines have operational limitations. "A nuclear submarine can stay submerged for extended periods, but the crew still needs food, rest, and rotation. No vessel can maintain its position forever," he said.
Huang further warned that a blockade, if attempted, would expose Chinese submarines to severe risks. "It's not only about sustaining the blockade, but also about whether those submarines could return safely. Other nations' naval forces could easily obstruct their path back to Chinese ports," he noted, adding that Taiwan has the capability to strike back if necessary.
Huang also pointed out that a prolonged blockade could trigger an international response. "If the US were to restrict Chinese vessels in the Strait of Malacca, or target China's Yangshan Port near Shanghai, Beijing would face immense economic repercussions," he said.
Lam's remarks drew immediate rebuttals from Taiwanese officials. Taiwan's Representative to the U.S., Alexander Yui, countered Lam's argument during the same event, highlighting the strong will of the Taiwanese people to defend themselves, as cited by Taipei Times.
Mainland Affairs Council deputy head Liang Wen-chieh dismissed Lam's theory, asserting that if such a blockade were that simple, Taiwan's decades of defence preparation "would have been meaningless." The exchange reflects Taiwan's firm stance that China's military coercion, including any form of naval blockade, remains more theoretical than practical, as reported by Taipei Times.
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