Mumbai, Sep 2 The GFD or GDP for the current financial year is expected to be within 6.4-6.8 per cent, given the uncertainty on the evolution of export duty or windfall tax as well as expenditure rationalisation, according to the Kotak Institutional Equities report.
"For now, we pencil in FY2023E GFD/GDP at 6.6 per cent taking into account the recent changes in duty of petroleum product exports and crude oil production," the report said.
Centre's fiscal deficit in financial year till date has been controlled, with a slight surplus in July. However, much of it has been achieved with expenditure being kept in check. Income tax and GST collections have been key support for the revenue side.
GST collections for July (collected in August) came in at Rs 1,436 billion, with CGST at Rs 247 billion, SGST at Rs 310 billion, IGST at Rs 778 billion, and compensation cess at Rs 102 billion.
GST collections are on track to achieve possibly its FY2023BE target. "CGST collections have been quite steady with a run-rate of around Rs 570 bn in 5MFY23. Centre's collection (CGST+IGST) is likely at around Rs 3 trillion in 5MFY23—46% of FY2023BE. We expect CGST revenues to exceed budgeted estimates by Rs 250-300 billion," report added.
Gross tax revenue in 4MFY23 came in at 31.5 per cent of FY2023BE while net tax revenue was at 34.4 per cent of FY2023BE. Gross tax revenue was buoyed by income tax and GST while other taxes have been running at a tad lower pace.
Meanwhile, Capital expenditure in 4MFY23 was at 27.8 per cent of FY2023BE. Much of this was supported by a steady pace in expenditure on roads and railways. Capital expenditure on roads was at 43 per cent of FY2023BE bn while railways at 42 per cent of FY2023BE.
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