The BJP has set a target of winning 40 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, but opinion polls conducted by India Today-C Voter and Times Now-Matrix show that the party may fall short of this goal.
According to India Today-C Voter poll, conducted in January 2024, found that the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, which includes the breakaway Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde and the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is projected to win 39 seats. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, led by the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena, the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP, and the Congress, is projected to win 9 seats. The Times Now-Matrix poll, conducted in February 2024, found that the Mahayuti alliance is projected to win 22 seats, while the MVA is projected to win 26 seats.
The BJP's target of winning 40 seats in Maharashtra appears to be ambitious, given the results of these opinion polls. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA alliance, which included the full Shiv Sena, won 41 seats. The BJP won 22 seats and the Shiv Sena won 19 seats. The MVA alliance is expected to benefit from the consolidation of anti-BJP votes. The Congress is expected to win 12 seats, the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena is expected to win 14 seats, and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP is expected to win 14 seats.
The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is expected to win 40.5% of the votes, while the MVA alliance is expected to win 44.5% of the votes. These opinion polls suggest that the BJP's target of winning 40 seats in Maharashtra may be difficult to achieve. The MVA alliance appears to be in a strong position to win a majority of seats in the state.