The possible electoral impact of the ban on the PFI in poll-bound Karnataka has sparked debate in political circles as its associate political wing SDPI, which has not been outlawed, is still relevant in certain constituencies with significant presence of the minority community.
The ban imposed by the Union government on the Popular Front of India (PFI) and several of its associates for their alleged terror activities, its political implications in Karnataka, where Assembly elections are just months away, are bound to be keenly watched.
The now-banned PFI along with its associates like the political offshoot Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and students' wing Campus Front of India (CFI) have been making their presence felt in the past few years, among the Muslim-dominated areas of the state, especially in the coastal belt.
As per the reports of PTI, the SDPI has over 300 public representatives in various local bodies and has attempted to gain a foothold in several assembly segments. It remains to be seen whether the ban on its parent organisation weakens the SDPI or allows it to consolidate its voter base further.
Muzaffar Assadi, chairperson, Department of Political Science at University of Mysore, said the ban may push the SDPI to contest more seats to consolidate the vote base, with “victimisation” of the community as an argument. In the seats that the SDPI would be contesting, this would have a “cascading effect” on the electoral outcome as they will divide the Muslim votes vis-a-vis the Hindus, which could help the BJP and affect the Congress, Assadi said.
Political analyst, A Narayana, from Azim Premji University also stated that if a Muslim mobilisation occurs in support of the SDPI on the ban issue, it will be detrimental to the Congress in certain pockets and advantageous to the BJP.
According to PTI reports, however, both Assadi and Narayana, however, reject this argument, claiming that there is no prohibition on the recruitment of SDPI cadres and that if the consolidation occurs, PFI sympathisers will undoubtedly join its political wing and work for it.
Some analysts said BJP will project the ban, and underline that the party kept up its promise of taking strongest possible action against “anti-national forces”. It will certainly try to harp on the nationalistic sentiments to turn the table in its favour, the analysts opined.
The BJP has for long been blaming the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government that was in power between 2013-18 for the growth of PFI in the state, and have accused the then chief minister of withdrawing cases against the now-banned Islamist outfit.