India's political landscape is undergoing significant shifts as the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party have withdrawn from the India Alliance, while Bihar's ruling Janata Dal (United) Party (JDU) is reportedly in talks to rejoin the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). On January 24, the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party announced their decision not to be part of the India Alliance in the upcoming 2024 general election. The alliance, formed in 2022, also included the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
The reported decision of JDU to rejoin the NDA would mark a significant political realignment in Bihar, where the JDU and the RJD have been part of a coalition government since 2017. Reports suggest that JDU leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has engaged in talks with BJP leaders in Delhi, with discussions said to be in the final stages.
If the JDU does rejoin the NDA, it could lead to the collapse of the RJD-led government in Bihar, prompting the RJD to seek new allies to maintain its grip on power. In addition to the JDU, there are reports that 10 Congress lawmakers in Bihar are in talks with the BJP. If these lawmakers defect to the BJP, it would further weaken the RJD's position in the state.
Lalu Prasad Yadav, the RJD leader, is reportedly working to strengthen his position in Bihar, attempting to attract JDU lawmakers and Congress lawmakers to the RJD.
However, the BJP is internally divided over whether to offer the chief minister's post to Nitish Kumar if the JDU rejoins the NDA. Some BJP leaders are concerned that such a move could alienate the party's core voters.
The political situation in Bihar is fluid and subject to rapid changes. The outcome depends on whether the JDU rejoins the NDA, if the RJD can secure new allies, and whether the BJP decides to grant Nitish Kumar the chief minister's post.