New Delhi, April 29 Amid a slew of pollsters projecting electoral outcomes in four states -- Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala --and one Union Territory, Puducherry, an independent agency, Shining India Survey, has predicted a landslide victory for the BJP in Assam and a potential upset for the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala.
Shining India Survey, though not widely known, claims to have accurately gauged public sentiment in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when several established pollsters fell short in predicting the outcome.
According to the survey, Assam is set to deliver a decisive mandate to the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led government, paving the way for the BJP to return to power in the northeastern state for a third consecutive term.
As per its projections, the BJP is expected to win 88 seats with a vote share of 45.8 per cent, while the Congress may secure 31 seats with 37.5 per cent vote share.
Regional players, including the AIUDF and Independents, are unlikely to make a significant impact, with a combined vote share of 8–10 per cent translating into 4–7 seats. The projections carry a margin of error.
For Kerala, the survey predicts the ouster of the LDF government, with the United Democratic Front (UDF) projected to return to power.
According to its findings, the UDF is expected to win 83 constituencies, while the LDF and NDA are projected to secure 54 and three seats, respectively. A close contest is anticipated in around 21 seats.
In terms of vote share, the UDF, with 43.6 per cent, is projected to be ahead of the LDF at 38.2 per cent, while the NDA is estimated to secure 13.5 per cent, which may not translate into a significant number of seats.
In Tamil Nadu, the survey suggests a largely status quo outcome, despite the entry of actor Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
According to the projections, the ruling DMK is expected to win 124 seats, while the AIADMK may secure 103 seats. The TVK could influence outcomes in around seven constituencies.
The vote share projections indicate a close contest, with the DMK at 38.6 per cent, the AIADMK at 37.3 per cent, and the TVK at 16.2 per cent in its electoral debut.
Notably, the Shining India Survey had projected 251 seats for the BJP and 98 for the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with a margin of error of 8–15 seats, figures it claims were close to the final outcome. The survey was conducted by journalist-cum-psephologist Hrithik Saini, who is also the Editor-in-Chief of Shining India News.
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