An India-based study has revealed a steady rise in breast cancer cases since 2000, with approximately 1.25 million cases reported in 2021, representing nearly 1% of the country’s total population. Researchers from various institutions used the ARIMA model (autoregressive integrated moving average) to predict that the number of breast cancer patients in India will continue to grow, estimating an economic burden of $13.96 (approximately Rs 1,165.66) billion by 2030.
The study, published in the peer-reviewed Scientific Reports, estimated the total economic burden of breast cancer in India at $8 billion in 2021.
"Breast cancer imposes a heavy economic burden on India and is associated with lower levels of physical activity, socioeconomic status, utilisation of health facilities and health insurance," the authors from Epi-Fractals Biosystems Technopark, Great Lakes Institute of Management, Assam University, Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences, and MS Ramiah University of Applied Sciences wrote.
Between 2021 and 2030, the number of breast cancer patients in India is expected to rise by around 0.05 million annually, with a 5.6% annual increase. Factors contributing to this rise include genetic predisposition (BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes), obesity, poor lifestyle, consumption of ultra-processed foods, smoking, and alcohol use.
The researchers noted that the survival rate of breast cancer patients in India is lower than in Western countries, citing factors such as earlier onset age, late-stage diagnosis, delayed treatment initiation, and inadequate or fragmented care.