Chennai, April 29 Exit polls for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections released on Wednesday indicate a clear advantage for the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance, suggesting that Chief Minister M.K. Stalin is likely to secure a second consecutive term in office.
The 234-member Assembly went to polls in a single phase on April 23, with results scheduled to be declared on May 4.
A voter turnout of 85.10 per cent was recorded, reflecting strong public participation in what was largely seen as a four-cornered contest between the DMK-led front, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led alliance, actor C. Joseph Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), and the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK).
According to the People's Pulse exit poll, the DMK-led alliance (DMK+) is projected to win between 125 and 145 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 118.
The AIADMK-led alliance is likely to secure 65 to 80 seats, while TVK could make a notable debut with 18 to 24 seats.
Other parties are likely to win between two and six Assembly constituencies.
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Similar trends were reflected in other surveys.
Axis My India also projected the DMK alliance winning 125–145 seats, with the AIADMK alliance trailing at 65–80 seats and TVK securing 18–24 seats.
The Matrix poll estimated the DMK alliance's tally between 122 and 132 seats, while the AIADMK alliance could win 87–110 seats.
TVK's performance was pegged at 10–12 seats, with others getting up to six.
Meanwhile, the P-Marq exit poll predicted the DMK alliance winning 125–145 seats, the AIADMK alliance 65–85 seats, and TVK emerging with a significant 16–26 seats.
Smaller parties and Independents are expected to win between one and six seats.
Despite minor variations, all major exit polls consistently indicate a clear lead for the DMK-led alliance, reinforcing expectations of its return to power.
The AIADMK alliance appears to lag behind, while TVK's entry has added a new dynamic to the state's political landscape by drawing a share of votes across traditional party lines.
With counting of votes set for May 4, the final outcome will determine whether the exit poll projections hold and whether the DMK secures another term in Tamil Nadu.
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