India is likely to experience a below-normal southwest monsoon this year, according to the latest seasonal forecast from private weather agency Skymet on Tuesday, April 7. Rainfall is projected to be 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which stands at 868.6 mm for the four-month season. The forecast raises concerns for the country's agricultural sector, as El Nino is expected to cause significant loss during the latter half of the monsoon.
The distribution of rainfall is expected to be uneven across the subcontinent. The central and western India regions that contribute to the core of the nation's agricultural belt are likely to receive inadequate rainfall. Specifically, the states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are predicted to record less-than-normal rain, with the below-normal becoming more pronounced in August and September.
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In eastern and northeastern India are projected to fare better than the rest of the country, with rainfall likely to be above normal. Meanwhile, the southern peninsular region is expected to see a normal monsoon, providing some stability to the local farming cycles.
Meteorologists at Skymet have identified the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a primary influencing factor for the 2026 season. El Niño, characterised by the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, typically suppresses monsoon rainfall in India.
The agency also noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—often referred to as the "Indian Niño"—has the potential to influence circulation. While a positive IOD can sometimes offset the negative effects of El Niño, the current outlook suggests it may not be sufficient to prevent an overall deficit.
The season is expected to begin on a steady note before tapering off. June is forecast to see near-normal rainfall at 101% of the LPA. However, the deficit is predicted to grow as the season progresses:
July: 95% of LPA
August: 92% of LPA
September: 89% of LPA
Skymet’s probability model indicates a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall and a 30% risk of drought conditions. Conversely, the probability of "excess" rainfall for the 2026 season is currently rated at zero.