Thiruvananthapuram, April 29 The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to return to power in Kerala, after a decade in the opposition, as per a broad convergence of exit poll projections released on Wednesday.
If the forecast showing a clear advantage for the Congress-led alliance comes true, then it would signal the end of the decade-long rule of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
Most surveys suggest that the UDF is set to cross the majority mark of 71 seats in the 140-member Assembly.
The CNN–News18 exit poll estimates the UDF tally in the range of 70–80 seats, while People’s Pulse projects a stronger performance of 75–85 seats.
Other agencies, including PMARQ and Matrize, have also indicated a consistent UDF lead, reinforcing the emerging trend across projections.
Vote share estimates mirror this advantage.
Axis My India projects the UDF securing around 44 per cent of the vote, compared with 39 per cent for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), 14 per cent for the NDA, and about 3 per cent for others.
Surveys by Times Now-JVC, CNN Vote Vibe and PMARQ similarly point to a UDF lead of roughly five percentage points, suggesting a decisive swing in voter preference.
As per detailed projections, CNN–News18 gives the UDF 70–80 seats, the LDF 58–68, and the NDA 0–4, while PMARQ projects the UDF with 71–79, the LDF 62–69, and the NDA 1–4. Matrize gives the UDF 70–75 seats, the LDF 60–65, and the NDA 3–5, and the People’s Pulse goes with the UDF 75–85, the LDF 55–65, and the NDA 0–3.
Soon after the polls closed on April 9, the ruling LDF, which held 99 seats in the outgoing assembly, had expressed confidence that its governance record and welfare measures would ensure continuity in power, even indicating that a narrow majority would suffice.
The UDF, on the other hand, has asserted that anti-incumbency sentiment and a united campaign translated into a clear mandate, with some leaders claiming the alliance could surpass 85 seats and even approach the 90 mark if the trend strengthens.
The BJP-led NDA, while not projected to make significant gains, remains hopeful of improving its presence, particularly in constituencies witnessing triangular contests.
The exit polls were released following the completion of polling phases in other states, including West Bengal, with counting scheduled for Monday. In the 2021 elections, most exit polls had correctly predicted an LDF return, adding a note of caution to current projections.
With strong voter turnout recorded on April 9, Kerala now awaits the final verdict to determine whether the projected shift in power will materialise.
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