New Delhi, April 21 India-linked tariff refunds on exports to the United States are expected to be in the region of $10 to $12 billion after the US authorities opened a $166 billion claims window for customs duties imposed by the Donald Trump administration that were later struck down by the courts, according to a report by Global Trade Research Initiative.
The refund process opened on April 20, and claims can be filed only by US-based importers, which means Indian exporters have no direct legal route to seek repayments.
Indian companies are now dependent on talks with American buyers if they want to secure any share of the refunds. Exporters may need to seek rebate-sharing deals, price changes, or improved terms in future contracts.
The report said the headline figure points to a large opportunity, but warned that any actual gain for Indian exporters will depend on their negotiating strength and their ability to reopen commercial terms with US partners.
Textiles and apparel, engineering goods, and chemicals are likely to account for most of the India-linked refunds, as these sectors were among the worst hit when the tariffs were abruptly jacked up.
The refund platform is being managed by US Customs and Border Protection through its Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries system, known as CAPE.
The first phase covers businesses with unliquidated entries, or import filings still under customs review, and entries that were finalised within the past 80 days. Businesses with older finalised entries must wait for later phases before filing claims.
US customs officials told a federal judge that businesses already eligible under the first phase are owed about $127 billion in refunds.
There appears to be a long process ahead as importers must submit claims through the CAPE portal with records linked to eligible entries, including customs filings, tariff payment history, and entry classifications.
The agency said it is handling about 53 million entries filed by 330,000 importers. Even after approval, refunds may take 60 to 90 days to be paid.
Although the US administration has since relied on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for newer tariffs, the court ruling means earlier collections cannot be validated after the fact. For many importers, the portal launch marks the start of a longer reimbursement process.
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