New Delhi, Oct 21 Barely a month ago, Bihar’s Opposition platform of Mahagathbandhan appeared to have a thin edge over the state’s ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in this year’s Assembly elections. Its projected face in the state, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, appeared vulnerable against anti-incumbency sentiments. Allegations of corruption were being wildly thrown at Cabinet members, and his frequent political switch earned him the sobriquet of “Palturam”.
Also, videos and memes surfaced highlighting Nitish Kumar's advancing years. He had earlier a reputation for good governance and clean image. He was hailed for pulling Bihar out of what was referred to as “jungle raaj”.
Meanwhile, Bihar’s principal Opposition party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) seemed buoyed by the aggressive leadership of Tejashwi Yadav. He joined ally, Congress MP and Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, on an almost-statewide journey, pointing out faults with the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.
Another major ally the Left, too, seemed consolidating, even above the major gains it achieved in the 2020 Assembly election. But now it seems the NDA has strengthened itself by deftly managing its constituents with precision and pragmatism.
Its main constituents – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) have finalised their seat-sharing arrangement well ahead of the nomination deadlines.
While each will contest 101 seats, ally Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has secured 29, leaving the rest to other allies.
There are altogether 243 seats in the state Legislative Assembly. Chirag almost appeared to rebel – like in 2020. His decision to enter the fray as an NDA partner this time may hold the key to more than the seats his party will contest.
His solo venture in the last poll cost the ruling dispensation a loss in close to 40 seats. That has been settled in NDA’s favour this time.
The ruling alliance’s coordination and seat-sharing clarity have given it a definite edge.
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi set to lead the campaign with 12 rallies across the state, supported by top Central leaders like Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, among others, excitement in palpable within the ruling front.
The Mahagathbandhan, unlike the last time, has failed to present a united front at several constituencies.
In Bachhwara, where the Communist Party of India (CPI) candidate representing the Mahagathbandhan lost narrowly (by 484 votes) to the BJP, the former now has an RJD rival too.
Similarly, in Vaishali, the RJD has fielded its candidate against the Congress nominee, where the latter lost to the JD(U) by more than 7,000 votes in the last Assembly election.
In Rajapakar, where the Congress defeated its nearest Janata Dal (United) rival by almost 1,800 votes in 2020, the sitting MLA is now facing a CPI candidate.
A similar scenario is there in other constituencies as well. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) – an ally at the national level – earlier announced its intent at contesting six seats independently. It later withdrew from the race, complaining of betrayal and unresolved contradictions within the alliance.
The JMM, leading an INDIA Bloc government in Jharkhand, has also threatened to review the alliance.
The Mahagathbandhan’s internal clashes risk fragmenting anti‑NDA votes in key constituencies, potentially benefiting the BJP‑led alliance where unified seat allocation remains steadier.
It is further challenged where various other anti-BJP platforms, like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, are in the fray. In a ‘first-past-the-post’ electoral system, where a candidate is declared winner from a constituency even if there is a difference of one vote over the mandate for the runner-up, a quick calculation points to an advantage-NDA situation.
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