The exit polls for the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, released after 6 p.m. on Saturday, suggest a significant lead for the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance. However, the coalition is likely to face competition from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in their quest for a majority in the 90-seat Assembly.
The key players in this election include the Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference (NC), Congress, the BJP, Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), and several independent candidates. The Congress and NC formed an electoral alliance, agreeing on a seat-sharing arrangement. Nevertheless, there are some constituencies where ‘friendly competition’ is expected between the two parties.
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Projected Outcomes from Exit Polls
India Today-CVoter Exit Poll:
- The Congress-NC alliance is projected to win between 40 and 48 seats, giving them a solid chance to form the next government.
- The BJP is expected to secure 27 to 32 seats, which may indicate a drop in their overall influence compared to previous elections.
- The PDP is forecasted to win 6 to 12 seats.
- Smaller regional parties and independents may collectively secure around 6 to 11 seats.
Dainik Bhaskar Exit Poll:
- This poll suggests the Congress-NC alliance is leading with 35 to 40 seats, but it indicates that they may not achieve a clear majority.
- The BJP is projected to win 20 to 25 seats, a significant decrease compared to the previous election cycle.
- The PDP is expected to secure 4 to 7 seats.
- Other parties might combine to win between 12 and 16 seats, which could give them considerable leverage in forming alliances after the elections.
RepublicTV-Matrize Exit Poll:
- This poll suggests a very close race, with both the BJP and the Congress-NC alliance expected to secure between 28 and 30 seats each.
- This scenario could lead to a hung Assembly, meaning no single party or alliance has a clear majority, which would complicate the process of forming a government.
- The PDP is forecasted to win between 5 and 7 seats, while other parties could secure between 8 and 16 seats.
Voter Turnout and Election Context
The elections for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly were held in three phases, concluding on October 3. The Election Commission reported a voter turnout of 63.88 percent, which is higher than the 58.58 percent turnout in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. The final vote counts will be confirmed after postal ballots are included.
Postal voting is available to several groups, including service voters, absentee voters (those above 85 years old, persons with disabilities), and those on election duty.
These elections are particularly significant as they are the first to take place since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, which removed Jammu and Kashmir's special status. The last Assembly elections were held in 2014, and the state government fell in 2018 when the BJP withdrew its support from the PDP-led government.