Thiruvananthapuram, March 28 With the Election Commission (EC) preparing for assembly by-elections in six constituencies across India, the Nilambur Assembly constituency in Malappuram district, Kerala, is set for a fierce contest between the ruling CPI(M)-led Left and the Congress-led UDF.
The EC has directed state officials to finalise the electoral rolls, with the final list set to be published on May 5 -- a strong indication that the election could be held in May, before the onset of the monsoon in June and July.
The Nilambur seat fell vacant after two-time Left-backed independent MLA P.V. Anvar resigned in January over CM Pinarayi Vijayan’s refusal to probe alleged illegal dealings of top police official M.R. Ajith Kumar and Vijayan’s political secretary P. Sasi.
Anvar, who was once a vocal critic of the UDF, has now aligned himself with the Congress-led front. He even travelled to Kolkata, where he met West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and was subsequently appointed convenor of the Kerala unit of the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
However, in a surprising move, Anvar announced that he would not contest from Nilambur, a decision that has come as a relief to the UDF.
With Anvar now attacking the Left, the CPI(M) sees the Nilambur by-election as a must-win battle to assert its dominance. The party is currently scouting for a strong candidate, with sources indicating that they have shortlisted a few names.
Among the frontrunners is former Indian footballer and ex-Kerala Police official U. Sharaf Ali, who is currently the president of the Kerala Sports Council. If selected, Ali will contest as an independent backed by the CPI(M)-led Left. However, if the party opts for a political candidate, young CPI(M) leaders are also in contention.
On the UDF side, two names are gaining traction -- Aryadan Shoukath, son of Congress veteran Aryadan Mohammed, who represented Nilambur for over two decades; and V.S. Joy, president of the Malappuram District Congress Committee (DCC).
In the 2016 Assembly elections, after Aryadan Mohammed retired from politics, Anvar defeated Shoukath by over 10,000 votes. In 2021, Anvar won again, defeating Congress leader V.V. Prakash by just 2,700 votes.
The BJP-led NDA has a minimal support base in Nilambur. Their vote share has dropped from 12,284 votes in 2016 to 8,595 in 2021. Given the narrow margin of victory in the last election (2,700 votes), political observers will be watching the BJP’s strategy closely, especially as both the CPI(M) and UDF have accused each other of having a secret pact with the BJP.
With high stakes for CM Vijayan, the Nilambur bypoll is shaping up to be a prestige battle, with both the Left and the UDF pulling out all stops to secure a win.
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